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How does Hurricane Milton compare to Hurricane Helene?

Collapsed buildings lie in flood waterImage source, EPA
Image caption,

Hurricane Helene left a trail of devastation at the end of September

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Following the widespread devastation that Hurricane Helene brought to the south-east of the US last month, people will be watching the forecast of another major hurricane with a great deal of anxiety.

But the two hurricanes will have some significant differences, meaning their impacts are also likely to be different.

You might be surprised to learn that the vast majority of fatalities from hurricanes comes from water hazards, not the wind.

Flooding from torrential rain and storm surges along with rip currents and marine accidents account for nearly 90% of those killed in hurricanes.

Image source, EPA
Image caption,

Hurricane Helene caused severe flooding as far inland as Atlanta, Georgia

How much rain will there be?

After making landfall at 11:25pm local time on 26 September, Helene weakened and its remnants stalled across the Appalachian mountains and Tennessee Valley.

Enormous rainfall totals built up, with 30.78in (782mm) recorded at Busick, North Carolina. This extreme rain resulted in catastrophic flooding and landslides.

In contrast, Hurricane Milton will move quickly across Florida resulting in up to 15in (375mm) of rain, which is still enough to cause some severe flooding, but unlikely to be as extreme as the flooding from Helene.

Image source, EPA
Image caption,

Key West in Florida was inundated by a storm surge from Hurricane Helene

How does the storm surge compare?

Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend coastal region of north-west Florida with a storm surge reported at over 15ft (4.5m). This area of Florida has a relatively low population density.

Hurricane Milton is also forecast to bring a storm surge of up to 15ft along the west coast of Florida. The exact path the hurricane takes will be crucial for at-risk coastal communities. The largest surge will be to the south of the centre of the hurricane.

If Milton makes landfall to the north of Tampa, then some of the biggest surges could go into the highly populated Tampa Bay area. So, the storm surge from Milton could end up giving greater coastal flooding impacts - there is still some uncertainty.

Image caption,

The track taken by hurricane Helene, compared with the forecast track for hurricane Milton

Will the wind strength be similar?

Hurricane Helene was a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140mph (225km/h) and was at its peak strength when it made landfall.

At its peak, Hurricane Milton is forecast to be even stronger with sustained winds around 165mph - a top rated Category 5 hurricane. However, it is expected to then weaken slightly, with sustained winds around 125mph (200km/h) at landfall.

Perhaps the wind damage will end up being similar from both hurricanes, with Milton's marginally less strong winds being offset by those winds affecting a more populous area of Florida. Either way, widespread damage and disruption is likely.