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A significant colder spell will descend south soon after midweek, along with changeable or even unsettled and quite windy conditions at first.

However, it will mostly settle down by the end of this week, along with chilly or frosty nights. Next week, temperatures could climb above average, but there is a higher probability that changeable conditions will return across the board.

Windy and gradually colder

From midweek, it gets gradually colder from the north, along with a brisk northerly flow. The latter is associated with a strong high-pressure pattern over Greenland sending colder air of Arctic origin southwards along its eastern flank. Spells of heavy rain initially followed by showery and windy conditions are to be expected.

Behind a sharp cold front on Wednesday and Wednesday night, colder air will eventually sink further south, bringing spells of showers that could be thundery and turn wintry, at least on the higher ground of Scotland, and later also further south.

Conditions should settle down in southern and western areas towards the weekend when a weak high pressure ridge follows from the west. Across Scotland and perhaps in Northern Ireland, conditions remain rather changeable, embedded in a brisk west to north-westerly flow.

Quite chilly or even frosty nights are also possible over the next couple of days. On Sunday, conditions will become generally drier and calmer, which is related to a high pressure ridge that moves over the UK.

Rising temperatures

During the third week of October, the high pressure could shift across the North Sea towards Fennoscandia and later establish itself over central and perhaps eastern Europe.

It is therefore likely that low pressure systems will move in from the south and south-west or west, leading to heavy rain or showers with a risk of thunder. Due to a south to south-westerly flow for the most part, temperatures could remain at least slightly above average.

There is a greater chance of changeable and occasionally windy conditions continuing across the UK during the latter part of next week, with occasional drier and calmer spells, especially in eastern and south-eastern parts.

Calmer and drier in parts

In the last week of October and into November, the long range weather forecast models still differ to some extent.

Nonetheless, there are some hints that the high pressure could shift over western continental Europe or the UK for a spell, which could generally mean milder and more settled conditions. However, there is still a possibility that the high pressure will be more over the eastern North Atlantic or Fennoscandia.

In view of this synoptic set-up, low pressure could approach from the central North Atlantic or more from the south or south-west. Temperatures in the UK are likely to remain slightly above average, with somewhat drier and calmer conditions.

With low pressure approaching from the west or south, England, Wales and Northern Ireland in particular could experience wetter and slightly windier weather at times.

Friday’s outlook may confirm some of the trends described and, in particular, provide an answer to the question of whether conditions could settle down a bit or at least whether temperatures could remain above average.