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It appears that the Sunni-Shia rivalry will be led by Egypt and Iran, and Iran will be (rightly or wrongly) blamed for any Shia opposition to Sunni regimes.

While America still wishes revenge for the Revolutionary Guards taking Americans hostage, one would have imagined that prodding Saddam to attack Iran would have been sufficient punishment.--- And with Saddam having slaughtered Iraqi Shias -- How much trust is it possible to ask from ANY Iranian ?

Historically, both America and Britain are seen as proven enemies to Iran --and they have seen in Libya what happens when one dutifully gives up nuclear weapon research.

--- so the Revolutionary Guards will be worse, than who ?

----- Than many Arab leaders presently still in wallowing in Dictatorial power ???

"Could Ahmadinejad be the next to go?"


Too much to hope for!

Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

Quite a tool, religion has become.
And who is not using it? Anyone? Anyone’s aide?

I found this an interesting addition (at the risk of being pot-shotted for the source).

--We should not assume that ´Democracy´ in the Moslem world will bring an acceptance of our foreign policies towards them.

--- ´democracy´ just don´t work that way and we better get used to it !

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." (Winston Churchill, from a House of Commons speech on Nov. 11, 1947)

#6 Chryses

--- and we are about to feel it´s power !

@2 Chryses. He only has 2 years left and then must step down anyway.

I, (like many others) have encountered many Iranian people and have found that their level of mistrust with regards the US and thus the UK is very high, they believe that it was our governments that overthrew the Shah and installed the Ayatollah Khomeini because of their increasing strength at the time.
I know that there is much anxiety with regards their attempts to build nuclear weapons, and Lord knows, one more nuclear state is all we need, but, is the paranoia a little much?
Pakistan has nuclear weapons after all and this a country but 65 years old.
Personally, I never lose a minutes sleep over Iran, it is a civilized nation minus the democracy which is the worst type of government after all.
I think the level of threat is Hardy something to speak of.

Kane

---did´t we put the Shah on the Peacock Throne --and the people threw him out ?

quietoaktree, (# 6. At 14:26pm 14th May 2011)

”... and we are about to feel it´s power !”
“About to”? Democracy has been about for a bit now. Are you Referring to Iran’s democracy? That too has been in place for a few years.

#9 Chryses

---but not ´theirs´ ---(the Arabs´ democracy.)

-- Iran´s has to come again !

quietoaktree, (#8. At 16:20pm 14th May 2011)

”... did´t we put the Shah on the Peacock Throne --and the people threw him out ?
. Others are mistaken.

quietoaktree, (#10. At 16:49pm 14th May 2011)

"... but not ´theirs´ ---(the Arabs´ democracy.) ...
It is unlikely to be unmanageable.

Chryses

I mean this --



--and this--



--- the party is far from over !

Chryses

--please try to avoid ´referrals´ -- and keep your head down for a while --until we scan the landscape.

--- it is the weekend (with implications)

quietoaktree, (#13. At 17:06pm 14th May 2011)

”Cłó°ů˛â˛ő±đ˛ő
I mean this ...
--and this ...
--- the party is far from over !”

The Foreign Policy party is never over.

The first example is good news! That is a peaceful expression of the people in support of their aspirations; far preferable to the years of guns and lashes which preceded this right to assembly.

The second is par for the course in that section of the world. It is worth being sensitive to, but not having policy being dictated by a black market. Now if the samples were of WMDs, well, that would be another story.

Chryses

---the Spanish civil war saw volunteers (socialists and communists) come together to fight Fascism --from all over the world (including Jewish Palestinians)

--it should not be excluded that a similar action may occur with Arabs in the present situation.

--only the point, that their democratic ideals (to remove dictatorships and make their own foreign policies) ---are likely for US (not only USA) --to be a double edged sword --- if we assume we can ´manage´ democrats (freedom fighters) who are willing to lay down their lives for their right to say NO !

quietoaktree, (#16. At 18:12pm 14th May 2011)

"... the Spanish civil war saw volunteers (socialists and communists) come together to fight Fascism --from all over the world (including Jewish Palestinians)

--it should not be excluded that a similar action may occur with Arabs in the present situation ..."
Of course not. That's one of the things those drones over at State get paid to stay on top of.

"... only the point, that their democratic ideals (to remove dictatorships and make their own foreign policies) ... "
I am less confident than you are of what "their" ideals are, democratic or otherwise.

"... are likely for US (not only USA) --to be a double edged sword ..."
Such weapons can be very useful when handled correctly.

"... if we assume we can ´manage´ democrats (freedom fighters) ..."
State has a satisfactory track record.

"... who are willing to lay down their lives for their right to say NO !"
That's what any patriot should be able to do, regardless of their nation of origin.

@8 quietoaktree
That is how I have always read it also, however, as I said, they are convinced otherwise.

quietoaktree, (#8. At 16:20pm 14th May 2011)

”K˛ą˛Ô±đ
---did´t we put the Shah on the Peacock Throne --and the people threw him out ?”
quietoaktree – .

@8 poweroaktree
Some would have us live in the God of their opinion.

"--the Iran crisis would have received far more attention than it has."

---I agree.

---probably the usual propaganda-- to distract from Bahrain and the activities of other Arabian ´allies´ with underprivileged Shia minorities.

Kane

--- where did you dig that up ?

---I thought only far-right Christian Americans were that capable ?

This Arab Spring has seemed to have stagnated. but events in the Occupied Territories are looking interesting so we shall see what happens. There is supposed to be a big million man march in Cairo on the 15th May.

The Iranian religious establishment seems a far less worse alternative than the Revolutionary Guard. Al-Jazeera reported that prominent conservative and parliamentarian Mohammad-Reza Bahonar criticised Ahmadinejad and accused him of "deserting" his supporters which are political parties and organisations. The General Council may get involved to deny president Ahmadinejad a solid parliamentarian majority next spring. Conservatives are worried that Ahmadinejad is seeking to eliminate the clerics from politics and end the system of supreme clerical rule set up by the Islamic Revolution.

#23 dceilar

"This Arab Spring has seemed to have stagnated. " ????

---- there are fights all over the place --- what do you mean by stagnation ?

quietoaktree @ 24

Like what Robin said the "so-called wave of Arab uprisings has pretty much by-passed something like 70 per cent of the members of the League of Arab States. (In Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Sudan and the UAE, there have been some protests, but in general, they've been relatively small-scale)."

I can't foresee any great change in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain either. These uprisings will be bloodily repressed. Libya is a different case of course - it also has the privilege of NATO bombing it which always keeps the civilian bodycount down!!

#25 dceilar

--- I think its far too early to say its over --the ´terrorism´of democracy will be working underground --- the Arabs are sick of their rulers (and us).

--- those peoples that manage it, will probably help the others.

@22 quietoaktree.
"Where did you dig that up"
It was suprisingly close to the top
"I thought only far-right Christian Americans were that capable"
And slighty left of middle here.

Kane

"---- And slighty left of middle here."

--you ARE living in a strange country ?

@28quietoaktree
"you ARE living in a strange country?"
Well, that would be breaking house rules, but are you telling me someone is not?
There are 1.5 billion adherents to Islam (and is also the fastest growing religion).
and approx 2.2 billion to Christianity.
There are not many Muslims to the West of mainland Europe.
Muslims make up 0.6 of the US population for instance.
The groundswell of opinion would change under those circumstances.
More central though.

quietoaktree @ 26

I hope you are right. We shall see if a long hot summer can rile up the masses.

quietoaktree has shone a little light on the problem. Looking in from the outside so often leads to simplification. I watched as major 'free-world' leaders have backed a regime then the opposition, then the uprising, then the 'forces of democracy' (whatever they are). I believe peoples of north Africa are genuinely hurting but I have been listening for some reason for the demonstrations. Well, it probably comes down to the cost of living. NO, NOT because the average citizen earns two dollars a week. Cost is relative. Well-being is evaluated in the mind by a wide range of factors. Food seems to be very expensive for many north-Africans. Is this the root of the problem? Now let's look at the news. We are told the demonstrators want democracy. In each case, I want to know who organised the uprisings. From where did their weapons come? Who do the 'demonstrators' represent? What would be the new government? From where would the finance and infrastructure come? Now, a question: For argument's sake: If Britain entered a true econmic depression and unemployment rose yet further, there could be big demonstrations. If one such led to the storming of Parliament, do you think for one second that the British Government would stand by, without recourse to the use of armed forces to keep Law and Order? Well, that is just about what happened in Tunisia. That is why there is such fear amongst leaders in Libya, Syria et al. Libya and Syria have been stable and stabilisers for a lond time. Libya called for help to re-establish order. Libya asked the UN for suppost. The leadership admitted they could not handle the situation and needed more experienced forces to calm the situation. Theie calls were ignored. I think Britain and other similar countries realised that they could not do the job that was needed so, to save face, they attacked the north-African countries for being undemocratic and despotic. Then NATO was free to bomb and the grey area were obliterated. To finish: Popuation growth is a major problem. Unaccountable people without citizenship have no rights or responsibilities to the state. If we all hope and expect counties in the world in general to be responsible, then we must all respect where countries have come from (their history), we must understand it takes time for countries to develop democratic structures of any kind without risking collapse, and we must realise that we are not paragons of virtue. Women in Britain got the vote less than 100 years ago and many had to go to prison before they did! One million women went on a peace march in Ireland for

The western world may be out to get Ahmadinejad (I wonder what the next color in line will be.), but he will not be next to go. His position is secure, and actually, when I listen to what the man has to say (something the United Nations representatives should do more of), he seems quite well-spoken & logical.
During Ahmadinejad's tenure, relations with the West have soured while relations with other parts of the world, including Africa & Latin America, have taken an amazing upswing. Relations with the ALBA states & Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador, in particular, are extremely solid. Relations with the United States are just about kaput, but Ahmadedinejad accepts this.
Ahmadinejad has made some negative statement about the Holocaust, but he's not the first and he will not be the last. You'd think that the Jewish Holocaust was the only Holocaust that ever happened! I think things Jewish are the only things about which NO ONE IS ALLOWED to have his/her own opinion.
He advocates "free elections".
He believes Palestinians need a stronger voice.
In September 2010, Ahmadinejad upset yet another apple cart at the 65th session of the United Nations General Assembly by claiming that most people believed the United States government was behind the 9/11 attacks and he called for a full-fledged inquiry. Well, you know what, I believe the United States government was behind the 9/11 attacks, and I too would like to see a full-fledged inquiry.
The man has a mind; he speaks it often.
The man has courage; he displays it often.
I doubt is there will be any dictator next to go.
I think the Arab spring is over; it's summertime, and the living ain't easy.

#30 dceilar

The Arab spring appears to have reached Israeli borders.

quietoaktree @ 33

Indeed it has.

Here's a good video:

Here's another good video:

An excerpt: “Across the [Middle East], an overwhelming majority of the population regards the United States as the main threat to their interests… The reason is very simple… Plainly, the US and its allies are not going to want governments which are responsive to the will of the people. If that happens, not only will the US not control the region, but it will be thrown out.”

Those are great articles.

-----------------

Btw, the answer, #3, is no one. Not even the unaffiliated.

Because the supreme religious leader has such powers in Iran any replacement will have to be in line with those positions. Individuals may change but the fundamental approach will not. It is the structure of the government that must change not just the people who are in power. Change in Iran is usually done with the equivalent of a "witch trial."