Optimism over 'slow burn' swine flu rate
A quick update from the swine flu briefing earlier on Thursday - one of the most optimistic to date.
New cases are rising slowly enough that the government's chief doctor said he is hopeful of averting another peak altogether.
Sir Liam Donaldson, chief medical officer (CMO) for England, said the so-called second wave is "proving to be a slow-burn", with the possibility that it may peak at a lower level than previously feared.
"This is incredibly good news, because if this virus had another peak like the pandemic of 1968/70 (which had a second peak over Christmas and New Year 1970)...we might be able to avert that entirely," he said.
The aim is to achieve this through the use of vaccines, due to be rolled out before the end of this month.
Sir Liam said he would take "any breathing space we get", because this would "allow us to fight the disease, and save lives".
Some vaccine stocks are already sitting in UK warehouses, waiting to be sent out to GP practices.
Both the Baxter and GlaxoSmithKline versions have been granted a license for use.
The government's committee of vaccine experts met this afternoon to decide whether to extend the reach of the vaccine beyond frontline health workers and "at risk" groups.
The number of new cases in England last week is estimated to be around 18,000 compared with 14,000 in the previous week.
Numbers in Scotland - which appears to be a little ahead of England in the pattern of disease - are half what they were last week.
Health officials warned against interpreting this fall as a sign that Scottish cases have peaked.
Sir Liam repeated his description of swine flu: "The disease is not a killer, but it can kill."
And he said this was highlighted by the fact that numbers in intensive care are now at their highest for the last two months.
Of the 290 cases in hospital in England, 47 are in intensive care. But with fewer cases around, Sir Liam may find it harder to persuade people to take up his offer of a vaccine.
Comment number 1.
At 8th Oct 2009, bookhimdano wrote:hey sw
did you see that report about someone wanting to register climate change as a religion?
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Comment number 2.
At 11th Oct 2009, swatts2 wrote:Dear Mr. Rippon and Ms. Watts,
The fact that swine flu is not as bad as previously envisaged by the government comes as no surprise to many of your viewers. It was, in effect, predicted; please see this message posted on the Newsnight blog site on 9 July 2009:
"....There have been various examples of risk-averse planning by bureaucracy in the last decade. Large amounts were spent by government on dealing with the millennium bug, a threat to computers that never materialised. Governments have recently spent large amounts preparing for an attack of deadly Asian bird flu, only to find that an unexpected pandemic has arrived in the form of a relatively mild Mexican swine flu. Planning for Asian flu involved an extensive campaign of public health information at airports etc. The greatest disaster of recent times that never materialised was the Iraqi threat of weapons of mass destruction. Such weapons systems never existed. In the U.K. fears over BSE and foot and mouth disease amongst cattle have lead to the national herds and flocks being slaughtered twice over. It is in this context of excessive risk-aversion, that governments response to climate changes is best considered..."
Would you now please do a programme on the politics of disaster planning?
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Comment number 3.
At 4th Nov 2009, thisfella wrote:Please tell me I'm wrong to be concerned?
Please could we see an informed and balanced response to this - or is this not new?
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Comment number 4.
At 25th Nov 2009, swatts2 wrote:Bureaucracy and Scare-mongering.
More good news today. Swine flu is turning out to be a lot less of a threat than was confidently predicted a few months ago. Many children have now been infected but symptoms were so mild that no one noticed. Also, the world HIV pandemic has now passed its zenith and is in decline. Remember all the pleading from health workers, international aid agencies and bureaucrats. These people keep themselves in work by arguing the need for increased budgets to deal with a crisis that may not, in fact, exist. Is it not time to consider the possibility that the threat of climate change is not as serious as lobbyists and bureaucrats suggest? Remember, the bureaucrats do not know:
“…the radiative forcing for a doubling of CO2 is well known from observations of radiation absorption, and is well represented in models. But the temperature rise this causes is not well known due to the very many different feedbacks which operate in the climate system (such as changes in clouds, ice reflectivity etc)...”
26 Oct 2009. Met Office.
“….the degree of warming due to CO2 is uncertain, but we are certain that there will be some warming. The range of likely temperature increase for a doubling of CO2 is 1.5-4.5 degrees C….”
27 Oct 2009. Met Office.
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