Lib Dems back in the game
- 26 May 07, 01:51 PM
...and you thought it was all over.
Well, it ain't. Hot news from Llandrindod Wells is that the Lib Dems have voted to jump back into bed with Plaid and the Tories... or at least, they'll try to.
The vote from the Metropole Hotel in favour of reviving talks with the other opposition parties was 125 to 77 - a pretty good majority for Mike German and those of like mind who want to see a rainbow alliance.
Coincidence or not, the vote took place in a room which featured a painting of a rural scene with - what else? - a rainbow. In familiar Lib Dem fashion, the voting process was hugely entertaining.
A show of hands was eventually abandoned amid various complaints, including one from AM (step forward Eleanor Burnham) about having to hold her arm up that long, while another member accurately pointed out the difficulties of doing so when you have a broken arm. Again staying true to their green principles, the paper votes ended up in a recycled box. Then the result, showing a 62% majority for a return to the rainbow.
And so the story takes another twist. Stay tuned...
The boss is back
- 25 May 07, 05:35 PM
Yesterday Rhodri Morgan went to the 6th birthday party of one of his grandchildren. He spotted one little boy staring at him intently.
Eventually the little boy plucked up the courage to ask his friend's grand-dad "Are you the boss?"
After the most topsy-turvy three weeks of his political career, the boss elect suggested that maybe he could answer that qusetion 'tomorrow'.
Well tomorrow came and yes, the boss is back.
The man with the busiest Blackberry in Cardiff yesterday lunchtime, the Presiding Officer, was none too pleased that some Lib Dems had been trying to persuade him to call off the plenary session that he had already called. The Standing Order 36 ruse was never used either.
The nomination went ahead and Rhodri Morgan stood up in the chamber to start the process of "reaching out" to the other parties.
If you thought PR stood for Proportional Representation, then you're right of course. But round the Senedd for the past few days it had started to be used for 'Post Rhodri'. Not any more. Not for now at least ... says the woman who's in the middle of filling in the 'media accreditation form' for the Lib Dem Special Conference in Llandrindod tomorrow. As someone said on Radio Wales this morning you know that the centre of gravity of Welsh politics is on the move when all the crucial decisions are made in Llandrindod! If the laptop works, I'll tell you all about it.
By the way yesterday this blog was given a link from the main ±«Óãtv news page - proof positive that Welsh politics was truly interesting to them (for a day ...) and in the hope that it has managed to attract interest from beyond Wales, I'll sign off with an englyn to Rhodri Morgan by an anonymous, struggling, not entirely unbiased poet.
If you speak Welsh, enjoy it. If you don't, ask and I'll ask someone else to explain!
I Rhodri
Rhodri - mae'n un egniol - a'r enfys
Mor ynfyd yn farwol;
Am nawr, mae o yn ei ôl,
Rhan addas, i un rhinweddol.
At the end of the day
- 24 May 07, 04:13 PM
People have taken to calling the office to ask whether anything has changed in the last 10 seconds.
This is where the day ends. Rhodri Morgan will be nominated as First Minister tomorrow and everyone but Labour will abstain.
He wants his new administration to hit the ground running and has clearly got the group's blessing to talk in terms of 'reaching out' to 'progressive people in other parties', to 'move forward by consensus'. There was even an apology from him tonight if any of those 'progressive people' had taken offence at some of the harshest words he and others in his party had used.
He was pretty quick to point out mind you that they'd used some pretty harsh words themselves today - and aimed them at each other.
So what of the rainbow coalition?
For the Lib Dems Saturday's conference is the big one. IF the resurrected Special Conference sees them voting in favour of the rainbow coalition, IF the party is convinced that the deal should be done, IF they in turn can convince Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives that the support is stable, then it may yet have its day.
Weeks? No. Months? Maybe. For now we'd alll be happy to get to the end of the week.
You won't believe this ...
- 24 May 07, 02:23 PM
Standing Order 36?
Mean anything to anyone? It may become known for triggering a last ditch attempt by the rainbow's fans to keep the coalition alive.
Ironically enough it was inserted at Labour's request to avoid frivolous nominations for First Minister. Technically it could allow AMs - if there are anything like enough of them - to scupper the process of nominating the FM tomorrow. Why?
Because at the same time grassroot Lib Dem members have collected the 20 signatures they needed to persuade the party to put Saturday's Special Conference back on the agenda. Yes, you read that right. It's back on and the party will gets to vote on it.
Only in Wales ..?
As promised:
The following are the headlines from a programme of Government drawn up by party leaders Ieuan Wyn Jones, Nick Bourne and Mike German but turned down by the Lib. Dem. National Executive.
The "All-Wales Accord" as its known pledges that "an All-Wales Government" would offer a " new chance" and a "new choice" to build "a fairer, more diverse and stronger nation".
The document sets out 7 key policy "pillars"
1. BUILDING THE NATION
*A Referendum on law making powers for the Assembly
*Seeking transfer of further power in areas such as energy, transport, youth justice, mental health and local government.
*Independent Commission to investigate the Barnett formula
*New Welsh Language Measure
*Referendum on PR in Local Elections
*Establish English Language National Theatre and develop a National Gallery
*National strategy for Welsh Medium Education including the establishment of a Welsh Medium Federal College
2. AN ENTERPRISING ECONOMY
*Enhance and extend business rate relief scheme throughout Wales
*Commitment to local procurement in Government contracts
*National Science Academy
*Class sizes 25 or less in primary schools
*Additional Resources to upgrade school buildings
*Pilots for laptops for children
3. LIVING SUSTAINABLY
*Annual Carbon emission reductions of 3% per year
*Give an independent bosy the role of monitoring + setting targets
*Renewable electricity generation target of 20% by 2015
*Firm programme to upgrade North-South and East-West road links
4. HEALTH AND WELLBEING
*Moratorium on Hospital CLosures - commitment to District General Hospitals
*Charter of Patient Rights
*More resources for PE, guaranteed access to nursing services in every secondary school
*Pilots for Nurse - led walking centres and wellbeing centres.
5. SOCIAL JUSTICE
*Sufficient supply of temporary accommodation for homeless people
*First Time Buyer Grants
*Significant investment in social and affordable hosing
*Greater planning flexibility
*Universal affordable childcare by 2015
*Council tax discount for pensioners
6. WALES IN THE WORLD
*Widen and strengthen Wales' membership of International bodies
*Strengthen presence in Brussels
7. GOVERNING BETTER
*Independent National Commission on National Governance
*Resolve that no Assembly-funded services be made conditional on possession of UK Govt proposed ID Card.
The "All-Wales Accord" as its known pledges that "an All-Wales Government" would offer a " new chance" and a "new choice" to build "a fairer, more diverse and stronger nation".
The document sets out 7 key policy "pillars"
1. BUILDING THE NATION
*A Referendum on law making powers for the Assembly
*Seeking transfer of further power in areas such as energy, transport, youth justice, mental health and local government.
*Independent Commission to investigate the Barnett formula
*New Welsh Language Measure
*Referendum on PR in Local Elections
*Establish English Language National Theatre and develop a National Gallery
*National strategy for Welsh Medium Education including the establishment of a Welsh Medium Federal College
2. AN ENTERPRISING ECONOMY
*Enhance and extend business rate relief scheme throughout Wales
*Commitment to local procurement in Government contracts
*National Science Academy
*Class sizes 25 or less in primary schools
*Additional Resources to upgrade school buildings
*Pilots for laptops for children
3. LIVING SUSTAINABLY
*Annual Carbon emission reductions of 3% per year
*Give an independent bosy the role of monitoring + setting targets
*Renewable electricity generation target of 20% by 2015
*Firm programme to upgrade North-South and East-West road links
4. HEALTH AND WELLBEING
*Moratorium on Hospital CLosures - commitment to District General Hospitals
*Charter of Patient Rights
*More resources for PE, guaranteed access to nursing services in every secondary school
*Pilots for Nurse - led walking centres and wellbeing centres.
5. SOCIAL JUSTICE
*Sufficient supply of temporary accommodation for homeless people
*First Time Buyer Grants
*Significant investment in social and affordable hosing
*Greater planning flexibility
*Universal affordable childcare by 2015
*Council tax discount for pensioners
6. WALES IN THE WORLD
*Widen and strengthen Wales' membership of International bodies
*Strengthen presence in Brussels
7. GOVERNING BETTER
*Independent National Commission on National Governance
*Resolve that no Assembly-funded services be made conditional on possession of UK Govt proposed ID Card.
Over the rainbow
- 24 May 07, 01:04 PM
So this is :
Labour started talking to the Lib Dems and to Plaid Cymru - or the unpalatable and the inedible as they were nicknamed. Not their best negotiating ploy that one, because in the end the Lib Dems spat them out and so, eventually did Plaid.
All deals, be they formal or informal, along the lines of the 'New Zealand model' (or the 'Rachel Hunter' as it was known in the office) - well, all those were off. This new kind of consensus politics is a difficult business to get to grips with.
It was over to the other three parties, the so-called rainbow coalition. They seemed to have struck a deal but last night it vanished - or should that be evaporated - and all that's left of it this morning is an awful lot of acid rain.
From Plaid Cymru: "The Liberal Democrats have tonight turned their backs on their duty to the people of Wales and have shown absolute contempt for the electorate. "
From the Conservatives: "Liberal Democrat members have shown that they lack the courage, ambition and desire to take the big decisions which will make a real, positive difference to the lives of people across Wales. "
The Liberal Democrat leader, Mike German, is yet to appear in the Senedd. Last night he heard one of his party's biggest hitters, Lord Carlile, calling the deal he'd advocated, "unethical politically and suicidal politically". Others simply point out that the deal was there to be done. It just wasn't costed properly. It wasn't good enough.
By the time he arrives he'll find that Labour have moved quickly from the unfamiliar territory of the sidelines.
Tomorrow the session's been called to nominate the first minister. It can only be Rhodri Morgan, who will after all now outlive Mr Blair.
He'll plough on now in a minority - not what he wanted, not what an Assembly embracing new law-making powers had envisaged either but better that than another election.
Will the idea of the rainbow - shaky as it was - have left its mark? Or will Labour and will a confused country forget it was ever there?
Rainbow coalition deal
- 24 May 07, 11:43 AM
The deal that never quite was has just been made public.
Once I have it in electronic form, I'll post it.
Short, not sweet
- 24 May 07, 08:51 AM
I'll do my best to post your comments as often as I can today. I've already realised that some of you are up very late (or very early) so I'll press the buttons as often as possible.
My own posts will have to be short ... though not sweet, if this morning's recriminations are anything to go by.
Opposing views
- 23 May 07, 11:38 PM
This from Ieuan Wyn Jones:
"The people of Wales deserve leadership and a stable government. Plaid Cymru offered that option but the Liberal Democrats have tonight turned their backs on their duty to the people of wales and have shown absolute contempt for the electorate. It was as a result of their decision to suspend talks with Labour that Plaid Cymru was required to offer an alternative government. The Liberal Democrats have now shown that they are unable to take serious decisions and are undeserving of government. The proposed coalition between Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats is now dead. We will reflect on tonight's decision and the Assembly group will meet tomorrow to reflect on what happens next."
This from one of the strong-minded women: "Who would have thought? Saved by the Liberal Democrats!"
Someone left the cake out ...
- 23 May 07, 10:59 PM
The Lib Dems have done it. (That's what I wrote last week).
The opposition parties are about to put Labour out of government (last week).
And tonight the Lib Dems have done it again. They've rained on Ieuan Wyn Jones' birthday cake ... and the rainbow has evaporated.
The Tories have already said they have no reason not to keep on talking to Plaid Cymru but that those decisions will be made in the morning. Plaid have said nothing but I can think of a few good reasons why they might not want to keep talking just to the Tories.
The rumours started flying around late this afternoon that the vote would be far tighter than Mike German was expecting.
I asked around. "Apprehensive but not concerned" said the man who would be First Minister.
But the Lib Dem triple lock worked. All three groups needed to return a majority vote. The negotiating team did: 5:3; the AMs did 4:2; the exec was a dead heat. No majority. No special conference. The left wing of the party is flying home tonight but already pointing out to Labour that if they haven't learned something valuable from this process, then the battle would almost have been in vain.
I'm already been told by people in the party that count that Mike German over-reached himself and that he put the party second to an ambition to govern. "Over-reached himself" is bad, bad news for the leader.
A story comes to mind, about William Whitelaw, Ted Heath and gloating.
"Ted says we mustn't gloat," said Whitelaw, "wrong to gloat, mustn't do it, no, no, no. Well, I can tell you, I'm gloating
like hell".
This just in from Labour:
"We've always said that our door was open to talk to either the Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru. Nothing has changed in that. Our aim has always been to provide a stable government for the next four years."
The Group of Four
- 22 May 07, 09:35 PM
More on the strong-minded Plaid women.
They are Helen Mary Jones, Leanne Wood, Bethan Jenkins and Nerys Evans.
"We fought this election on a platform to deliver a proper Parliament for our nation. A deal with the Conservatives would undermine the chance of delivering that goal."
Key Plaid figures have come out in the past few days to talk up the rainbow coalition they said. It was only fair that those who oppose the deal have their voice heard too.
And how.
"There is a clash of values and principles between Plaid and the Conservatives. That is why we believe an arrangement between us would be unsustainable in the long-run and not deliver the stable government for which we all strive.
"We have thought long and hard about making a public statement. But, we think it is now right that we seek to convince our members to oppose what we believe would be a mistaken decision."
How many of those members will listen and refuse to accept that the 'one nation Tories' of 2007 are a quite different lot to the Tories of old?
And how many of you had put Helen Mary Jones in your cabinet? Not now. Come to think of it how many strong-minded women can there now be in a rainbow coalition cabinet? Fewer than in the last one by the looks of it.
Labour, for their part, insist that they've acted "in good faith, with a clear mission to provide stable Government for Wales. We believe we have conducted ourselves in an honourable and principled way".
Might they reveal the deal they'd put before Plaid? Suggestions today that they're 'disappointed' enough to do so.
One more concern doing the rounds: what would the rainbow coalition call itself? Alliance? Too liberal. Partnership government? No, Labour and the Lib Dems used that one.
The Cardiff Bay Collective? Maybe not.
A very happy birthday ...
- 22 May 07, 08:22 PM
I've never seen Ieuan Wyn Jones bounce into a room but he just did.
I'ts not unanimous but Plaid have voted to suspend talks with Labour and concentrate on efforts to form a Plaid-led rainbow coalition. It is, he said, deal that's exciting and that'll allow the party to put much of their manifesto into action. Not an unanimous vote - and he wouldn't go into detail.
Some strong-minded women walked out of the meeting looking pretty unhappy.
Did Ieuan Wyn have a happy birthday? "I've had a WONDERFUL birthday" he beamed before bouncing out again.
Inspiration
- 22 May 07, 12:46 PM
Rhodri Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones talk while, next door, there's a meeting going on entitled "Inspiring Leaders with Common Purpose".
An omen, we decide ... but of what?
Really? Really?
- 22 May 07, 12:01 PM
A few weeks before the election I joined forces with the Scottish Political Editor, Brian Taylor and the ±«Óãtv's Sultan of Swing and Things, David Cowling to spell out what we thought might happen on May 3rd and beyond.
Brian went first of course because ... well, Scotland always does and everyone in the room were fairly certain that the Scottish story would be bigger than the Welsh one. (Yes Brian, I did say the story ..!) IMy pitch was that Wales is not Scotland lite and that should the maths make things difficult for Rhodri Morgan, we may well see Labour talking to Plaid - vague surprise - or even a rainbow coalition. At this their ears pricked up.
After any number of questions to Brian, the man from Newsnight was kind and curious enough to turn to me. His question was this: "So Betsan Plaid and .. . the Tories? Really? Really?" The second "really" was long drawn out, the kind of long drawn out that concentrates the mind.
I'm not sure I convinced him or anyone else that yes, it really could happen but here we are, on the brink of finding out whether Ieuan Wyn Jones is about to discard the 'Wobbly' mantle or not. Does he get his group's support to go for the First Minister's job and throw in his lot with the rainbow coalition, or does he do a deal with Labour? Either way you can be sure we'll hear the word 'responsible' littering every interview he'll give later today.
Labour for their part insist they've done their best to come up with a deal for Plaid. Dissent amongst the Labour group is now down to - well half a handful shall we say and a 28-page document has just been delivered to the Plaid group. The two leaders sit down to talk within the next few minutes. Last gasp? Last ditch?
But even if the rainbow comes out on top today, what of the Lib Dems? Can Mike German keep his party on side or could it be that Saturday's Special Conference throws a spanner in the works. If that conference listens to and votes with some of the party's grandees who are speaking out vocally against the rainbow coalition, then the maths looks like this: Labour 26 seats, Plaid/Tories 27 seats. Lib Dems in opposition.
Which leaves the single surviving independent, Blaenau Gwent's AM and bingo queen, Trish Law. How does it go? "Own its own, number 1". If the colours of the rainbow fall apart, you get the feeling this "one" will be anything but "on her own". She'll do what she believes pays out best for Blaenau Gwent and that, at this point, has her leaning towards the mini-rainbow.
What a day for your blog to migrate. When there's news on that front - or any front - I'll let you know.
Old boy
- 19 May 07, 11:07 PM
Dafydd Wigley is an 'old boy' of Rydal School in Penrhos near Colwyn Bay and he's just been back to see them.
As if you needed reminding he wasn't elected to the Assembly and didn't therefore have to stay at home in case Ieuan Wyn Jones came visiting. He's been on the road this weekend, talking and listening to his AMs. That was his plan at least but it's not clear whether Bethan Jenkins pre or post her chat with the boss.
Anyway the good news for Dafydd Wigley is that he was able, therefore, to keep a promise to give a speech to Rydal's present lot of pupils, one designed to inspire them to go out there and go for it.
The gist? That there's no point expecting somebody else to get on with it on your behalf. It's up to you to seize your opportunities when they come about and make things happen.
A sharp-eared member of his audience wondered whether he was delivering a message to someone other than Rydal's finest.
A break with tradition
- 18 May 07, 12:47 PM
By ancient tradition - OK, eight years - opposition leaders crack a few funnies when Holyrood ratifies new ministers.
This week Murdo Fraser was witty, Tavish Scott was droll. Jack McConnell looked like he'd swallowed a particularly toxic wasp.
For why? Well, I suppose it's hard to smile when you've lost office, your car, your salary and your status. Tavish managed it, though.
But there's more. Labour doesn't intend to play by established rules.
They're in opposition, of course, but they will also operate like a standing alternative government.
They'll introduce legislation through members and committee bills. They want a say - a real say - in the executive's budget proposals.
Jack McConnell is the king over the water, waiting for his people to call again.
To help him in stirring that call, he has today appointed a new front bench team, mirroring exactly the ministerial structure of the SNP's government.
It's welcome back to the front bench for Wendy Alexander - who stepped down from Cabinet in 2002 to regain the freedom to think great thoughts. Presumably we will see the results of that exercise when she goes head to head with John Swinney.
I think we can now fairly say that the elections are over.
It's on with governing - and opposing. Which means it's time to sign off this blog.
But fret not: I've been given licence to blog regularly about Scottish politics.
I hope you can join me at my new blog, which you can find by clicking here.
Over the rainbow
- 17 May 07, 11:26 PM
So they've done it. The rainbow coalition partners are about to put Labour out of government in Wales.
Time only for some quotations and questions:
Lib Dem Exec: "Whichever way we look at this, it is a historic night for our party."
Peter Black: "And Waterloo was a historic night for Napoelon."
Mike German: "I've long believed in a non-Socialist alternative for Wales".
Plaid Cymru: "This will obviously change the dynamic of the negotiations".
A pro-Labour coalition Lib Dem: "Nick Bourne has seen off all his enemies and put the Tories back in power for the first time since 1898. Now he'll squeeze us to death".
Where was Lembit Opik, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats on "the most historic night for the party since Lloyd-George was around?"
He was recording an edition of "Have I got news for you?"
And one clarification. Peter Hain says he didn't say a Labour/Plaid deal was off the cards on tonight's Good Evening Wales. He said 'absolutely not' to a deal between Plaid and the Conservatives.
It seems that even a couple of hours is a very long time in politics.
Bits and pieces
- 17 May 07, 04:58 PM
DIRTY DOZEN SHOWS THAT CONSERVATIVES ARE STILL ‘TOXIC TORIES’ – OPIK
Just thought I'd share the title of the latest press release to arrive in my in-tray.
Did anyone say anything about a rainbow?!
From Peter Hain on Good Evening Wales the claim that Welsh Labour could 'certainly not' strike a deal with Plaid Cymru but is still on track to strike a deal with the Lib Dems. What does Rhodri Morgan make of that, given that Labour and Plaid negotiators were talking this afternoon?
And from a master blogger who finds himself without a voice, comes . The Cardiff Bay tour dates, he points out, are yet to be confirmed.
Key to the door
- 17 May 07, 03:56 PM
Throughout the campaign, the SNP leaders - mostly - contrived to subdue their smiles.
Or, at the very least, to ensure that they stopped well short of smirk status.
But you could scarcely blame them for grinning fairly broadly as they entered Bute House today for their first Cabinet meeting.
I'd like to think they indulged in a quick collective gloat followed by a group rendition of Flower o' Scotland.
But I know, of course, that they're much too serious.
The old house in Edinburgh's Charlotte Square hasn't seen such doings since it was designed by Robert Adam in 1791.
For more than 40 years, it's been the official residence of the Scottish Secretary - followed by successive first ministers.
Since devolution, it's been the base for Scottish Cabinet meetings - matching the dual function of Downing Street.
But never before has it housed a Nationalist.
PS: Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon arrived in a government Volvo. The other Ministers arrived, together, in two Toyota Prius vehicles.
These, apparently, are hybrids with an electric motor and a petrol engine, designed to cut emissions. They are, according to the manufacturers, "mean but green".
How apt - given the desire of our new rulers to cut costs and help the environment.
The Llandrindod Accord?
- 17 May 07, 02:12 PM
Forgive the new strapline - 'from the inside track'. As someone has already said, it makes me sound like Paula Radcliffe. The whole blog will be 'migrating' soon but more on that when it happens.
All eyes on Llandrindod then and whether Mike German comes out of the National Executive meeting backing one horse or other. One reliable voice says he will because he now has to. How he couches it is, of course, is another matter. But for what it's worth he's agreed to appear on Good Morning Wales tomorrow so he must think he'll have something worth saying.
Which way will he jump?
Plaid and Lib Dem negotiators are talking now. The 'we don't do limbo' Conservatives are in the loop. We're starting to hear snippets of real detail that potential rainbow partners are hammering out. People who last week laughed at the very suggestion of a rainbow coalition are warming to the idea so fast it makes your eyes water.
But hang on. This morning we're told that some of those Labour members who'd been convinced a deal with Plaid was truly on the cards and that some around the leadership preferred that option, are relaxing. They, at least, seem to have been reassured that party 'X' in the document leaked to the Western Mail are the Lib Dems and that Mike German will be able to sell his party a deal along those lines tonight. The suggestion is that they hope they were all fooled by their own leader as part of an elaborate bluff.
One legged swans, one red herring?
By the way the two special conferences - the Lib Dems' and Plaid's - will be both be held in Aberystwyth on a week Saturday. I'm told they may both be heading to the National Library. Should the title of this post read; "Treaty of Penglais Hill?"
A defining moment
- 17 May 07, 01:16 PM
Forget May 8th - when the history books are written it's May 17th they'll all be talking about. Why? Well that was the day this blog finally acknowledged that the Assembly election campaign finished some time ago and migrated to a new home on the web. After being overcome by popular demand (well 3 comments anyway) the ±«Óãtv has decided to keep this blog going indefinitely. The new working title is "The Devenport Diaries" and you should be able to find it here.
Thanks very much to all those who have read and commented on the blog so far. We can't migrate the archive over to the new site, but rest assured those historians looking for a defining moment will be able to read your comments on this site, which should be preserved for posterity.
Handbags and gladrags
- 17 May 07, 11:46 AM
Day One - and he's getting presents already.
I'm talking about our new first minister, Alex Salmond.
This morning he went to the Court of Session to be sworn in as FM, the Royal Warrant having arrived overnight.
He was given custody of the Scottish Seal, on behalf of Her Majesty.
The original Great Seal of Scotland dates back to 1094 when it was first used by King Duncan II. I believe the modern version only dates back to around 1885 when the newly created Scottish Secretary in the UK overnment was made the custodian.
Anyway, Alex is now the Keeper.
And, if I remember aright, he gets a Goodie Bag too - perhaps better known as the Purse.
As Purse bearer, he has to carry a little bag when he is accompanying the Queen on official engagements.
The Scotsman newspaper reported when J. McConnell was first sighted with the Purse that "there really isn't a cool way for a bloke to carry a handbag."
Treat it as a challenge, FM.
Signed and sealed
- 17 May 07, 06:29 AM
Yesterday afternoon I interviewed the first minister in St Andrews House. (For those still catching up, the new FM is one A. Salmond, the leader of the SNP).
I interviewed him in the FM's walnut-lined office suite. (I won't tell you which SNP assistant had to ask me where the FM's office was.)
As in the election, he was in emollient mood. Yes, he'll publish a White Paper on an independence referendum - but, yes, he understands the parliamentary arithmetic.
That means he won't attempt to legislate now. A wise choice: he'd lose.
Yes, he'll seek additional powers from London. But he won't demand.
A wise choice, again.
And now we have his Cabinet. Nicola Sturgeon at health, Fiona Hyslop at education, Kenny MacAskill at justice, Richard Lochhead at rural affairs - and John Swinney, Alex Salmond's successor and predecessor (Mr Salmond's been leader twice), at finance.
No place in the top team, for now, for Shona Robison or Fergus Ewing (both of whom had been variously tipped). But they are among the 10 deputies.
Today? These ministers have to be endorsed by parliament - and the new FM will attend the Court of Session to receive the Great Seal of Scotland.
Pinch yourselves, folks, the machinery of state is swinging into smooth action for a Nationalist leader.
Mutual Backscratching 3
- 16 May 07, 04:49 PM
So the timing of Bertie Ahern's speech in the Westminster Royal Gallery was nothing to do with the Irish election. But what then do we make of Tony Blair's appearance, praising Mr Ahern, in Fianna Fail's Party Political Broadcast? It's true that Mr Ahern appeared in a tribute film to Mr Blair shown at the last Labour party conference. But what happened to the convention of not interfering in other countries' elections? And isn't there a Labour party fighting the election south of the border?
Politics and morality
- 16 May 07, 04:41 PM
Bertie Ahern had an interesting quote from Daniel O'Connell in his speech to MPs and Lords yesterday. He quoted the champion of Catholic emancipation as saying "there is nothing politically right that is morally wrong.â€
I wonder whether people agree that the peace process has followed this dictum, or has been an example of the end justifying the means?
Sheep and Goats
- 16 May 07, 04:36 PM
"Parents don't want their children sorted into sheep and goats at the age of eleven". Who said that today? Martin McGuinness? Catriona Ruane? No, it was David Cameron explaining his latest policy shift on grammar schools. The local Tories have put out a statement saying that grammar schools in Northern Ireland work well and they will continue to back academic selection. Their NI Spokesman David Lidington has echoed that view. But could the Cameroonian shift influence the unionist nationalist debate about academic selection?
Crucial forty eight ...
- 16 May 07, 03:43 PM
Negotiating teams have been chosen and sent into action. Three of the four sides at least have stopped talking about talking and started talking. Mike German must continue to talk about talking until tomorrow night's National Executive let him and his negotiating team start the real thing.
The Plaid Cymru group had a lengthy meeting this morning and having listened to Ieuan Wyn Jones stressing afterards that Plaid are talking just as intensely to the Lib Dems and the Tories as they are to Labour, it's easier to believe that the rainbow coalition isn't dead after all.
Downstairs a little group is spotted huddled over a copy of the Government of Wales Act: the Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis-Thomas, Ieuan Wyn Jones and Mike German. Were they looking for wriggle room on dates?
What of the Tories? One - who'd have little interest in a cabinet seat - suggests that the group is hostile to a rainbow coalition. The group dynamic is quite different now, with brand new constituency AMs who've just been fighting strong Plaid candidates at the election and who'd rather keep it that way. Better he thinks to watch Rhodri Morgan strike a deal with Ieuan Wyn Jones and then squeeze Plaid's vote for all it's worth come the next election.
But from others in the group - perhaps with more to gain - the mood music is quite different. A formal agreement? No way. A full on rainbow coalition? Yes but only as long as cabinet seats are involved. They'd be in it to govern. No cabinet seats, no need to apply. no other reason. Are there dissenting voices? Yes but no more than that. The group meets tomorrow.
What next? The Lib Dem Executive meet tomorrow night. The Labour group meets again lunchtime Friday, Plaid any time between Friday and the middle of next week.
No swear box here but there's a fine for using the phrase "crucial forty eight hours!"
The new team
- 16 May 07, 12:58 PM
On with government. Alex Salmond, Scotland's new first minister, is in St Andrews House right now, finalising the plans for his team.
He was greeted at the door of executive HQ by Sir John Elvidge, the permanent secretary - who is a decidedly shrewd counsellor.
Mr Salmond will announce a Cabinet of six - plus 10 ministers. They will face a vote of confirmation in parliament tomorrow.
A good day for politics
- 16 May 07, 12:00 PM
After the tension of the campaign and the chaos of the count, Holyrood put on its best face for the choice of first minister.
In the second and final round, Alex Salmond was elected by 49 votes (SNP plus Green) to 46 (Labour) with 33 abstentions (Tory/LibDem/Margo).
The speeches were modest, moderate and uniformly gracious.
The new first minister described Scotland as "diverse, not divided" and promised to work entirely in the collective national interest.
Jack McConnell thanked Scotland for the opportunity to serve - and offered well-chosen words of praise to his successor. Both Annabel Goldie and Nicol Stephen were witty and thoughtful.
It won't last, of course. There will be conflict ahead. How could it be other with a tight, close chamber?
But this was a good day for Holyrood and a good day for decent, democratic politics.
Jilted at the altar?
- 15 May 07, 05:25 PM
Just back from listening to Rhodri Morgan announcing that coalitions 'seem to be ruling themselves out'.
He'll keep talking to the Liberal Democrats and to Plaid Cymru and "we hope to be in a position to form a minority administration but one that has to be supported in order to have some kind of stability and sustainability".
Had the Lib Dems expected him to kick coalition talk into touch?
No. If you heard Lembit Opik on Good Evening Wales, that much is clear.
Now they're wondering why. Does Rhodri Morgan think that Mike German simply couldn't deliver a coalition? Have Labour discussed the big Lib Dem demand on introducing STV to local government elections (sooner rather than much, much, much later ...) and refused to concede any more ground? Is the Labour leader edging towards a deal with Plaid Cymru? Or he is grandstanding?
They clearly don't know.
This from Mike German, who must be wondering what happens now to the deal he must have thought he had within his grasp.
"It's not sensible to arrive at any conclusions at this time. I remain of the belief that the government of Wales should have stability and a clear programme for government."
Mutual Backscratching 2
- 15 May 07, 04:57 PM
Blogging today from Westminster where I spent the day watching Bertie Ahern address both Houses of Parliament in the splendid gilt edged surroundings of the Royal Gallery, a chamber which sits between the Commons and the Lords. The Taoiseach took his place in a line of about 30 dignitaries honoured in this way before. They include Nelson Mandela, Bill Clinton, Mikhail Gorbachev and General De Gaulle. As noted here previously, Ruairi Quinn and Pat Rabbitte both objected to the timing of this invitation in the midst of the Irish General Election campaign. But Fine Gael's Enda Kenny took a different tack, accepting his invitation as a recognition of his party's contribution to the peace process. Certainly the bi-partisan turnout so far as Westminsterwas concerned (both John Major and Gordon Brown were in the audience) shows the British establishment believes May 8th is something worth marking.
And the Lib Dems say ...
- 15 May 07, 03:56 PM
We've spoken to 33 of the 40 Liberal Democrat constituency candidates for the Assembly Election.
Of those over two thirds of them - 23 in total (70%) - oppose any deal with Labour. 6 would support a coalition if there's a good deal and 4 refused to comment.
A few choice comments: 'over my dead body'; 'we must be honest, we were both rejected on May 3rd so there's almost a moral reason not to govern together'; 'they're devoid of ideas'.
"Fish or cut bait day".
- 15 May 07, 01:32 PM
So the Lib Dems have cancelled tonight's meeting of the Executive. They now meet on Thursday night and as one Lib Dem put it, "Friday is fish or cut bait day".
Labour AMs are gathering now, Plaid meet tomorrow so will the bait still be there? Or will Ieuan Wyn Jones have taken the plunge and made a move?
We know now that the Lib Dems will not move their Special Conference from May 26th despite Labour's increasing frustration that they're leaving it so late. We know too that Plaid Cymru intend to hold a meeting of the National Council on the same day. Only the National Council could overturn its own decision prohibiting any coalition with the Tories in the Assembly (but no bad thing either to have a meeting planned if there's a deal with Labour in the offing.)
Our ringaround of Lib Dem election candidates - of which more later - reveals a strong aversion to striking a deal with Labour. Unless STV in local government elections is on the table, most by far say 'no deal'. Even then no deal in the bag.
Downstairs Labour AMs are gathering for their group meeting. Until now they've made clear their determination not to tie Rhodri Morgan's hands by dismissing a deal with Plaid. Others continue to remind us that the 'worst worst' option would never be acceptable and even murmur a suspicion that party leaders may have had something like this in mind for a while.
By the way I got to within a stone's throw of Cold Knap Lake over the weekend. No one legged swans in sight.
X marks the spot
- 15 May 07, 07:15 AM
After exhaustive balloting, we now have the deputies to Alex Fergusson as presiding officer at Holyrood.
They are Alasdair Morgan of the SNP and Trish Godman of Labour.
Unlike Mr Fergusson, they don't have to relinquish membership of their party groups.
PS: There were ironic laughs when George Reid explained the voting system for PO - "mark your ballot papers with an X and fold the paper".
Memories of election night chaos in the Holyrood ballot.
And, again reflecting back to that inglorious night, four MSPs contrived to spoil their papers in the election for deputy presiding officer.
That is not, by the way, a joke.
Presiding officer elected
- 14 May 07, 03:31 PM
And so Scotland has a new presiding officer.
Alex Fergusson has been elected by 108 votes to the 20 obtained by Margo MacDonald, the Independent MSP.
Alex Fergusson is a Conservative MSP - and widely respected for his work within parliament.
He faces a tough job, given the new parliamentary arithmetic.
Mr Fergusson is a former president of the Blackface Sheepbreeders Association. His herding experience may come in handy.
All the best to the new man - and to his predecessor George Reid who was excellent in the role.
No Assembly Group on Women
- 14 May 07, 02:44 PM
The Ulster Unionists' call for the Assembly to rejoin the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association may have got through "on the nod", but Sinn Fein's attempt to create an all party working group on women hit the buffers today when the Assembly voted 44 to 43 in favour of a DUP amendment. The DUP's Michelle McIlveen argued that such a group would duplicate the work of the Office of First and Deputy First Minister. The Strangford MLA also wanted to be recognised as a politician who had got to Stormont on merit, not as a result of a quota system. Earlier Sinn Fein's Jennifer McCann described the current number of women MLAs (18 out of 108) as a disgrace.
The best moments in the debate featured the Ulster Unionists explaining their 100% male assembly team. Basil McCrea's maiden speech should have been heard without interruption but there were some raucous noises off when he accused the DUP and Sinn Fein of deselecting women candidates in the March elections. Roy Beggs explained that the UUP's woman MP, Lady Sylvia Hermon, hadn't been able to stand. The Alliance's Naomi Long got the biggest laugh when she quipped that the only maidens on the Ulster Unionist benches were men making their maiden speeches.
The UUP defector Arlene Foster acknowledged sarcastically that whilst the UUP's Assembly team was 100% male, its Commons team, now down to just one MP, was 100% female.
Name of the game
- 14 May 07, 02:43 PM
A fun game you can all play at home.
Pick Scotland's next cabinet.
Alex Salmond will be elected first minister on Wednesday - and will appoint his cabinet the following day.
He's already said he'll cut the number of cabinet ministers (to six, including himself.) So here goes.
First Minister - Alex Salmond (that's it Brian, stick your neck out).
Finance - John Swinney, the former leader.
Health (and, of course, Wellbeing) - Shona Robison.
Education - Nicola Sturgeon, Salmond's deputy.
Justice - Kenny MacAskill.
Rural Affairs - Probably Richard Loch-head, who held the brief in opposition and is a former Salmond aide.
But what about the claims of Fergus Ewing, soon to be remarried?
The Minister for Parliament (likely to be Bruce Crawford) will attend cabinet but not as a voting member.
The law officers will no longer sit in cabinet.
Come to think of it, who will they be?
Might it be an ecumenical approach to allow Eilish Angiolini to continue as Lord Advocate? Or is that ruled out by the promise to hold an inquiry into the Shirley McKie case?
Bowls and Muskets
- 11 May 07, 05:10 PM
So Bertie gave Ian a wooden bowl at St Andrews, and Ian returned the favour today when he visited the site of the Battle of the Boyne by giving the Taoiseach a musket. Will Bertie use it on Enda Kenny or Vincent Browne?
If King Billy's supporters had given King James' boys a few muskets back in 1690 then history might have been different. It's said that amongst King James' 25,000 strong army one man in every three had no musket and another man in every three had a musket that wouldn't fire.
No need for muskets now, according to the Health Minister Michael McGimpsey. Interviewed for tomorrow's Inside Politics he tells me that Thursday's Executive meeting was unbelievably "matey". He suspects work has been going on between the DUP and Sinn Fein for some time.
The Ulster Unionist Minister controls 47% of the new executive's budget, but he's not hopeful about getting any more cash to spend out of Gordon Brown. Instead he reckons the Chancellor is now focussed on his move into Number Ten and will steadfastly refuse to give the Executive ministers any further cash injection. Perhaps they will need that musket back after all...
Working together
- 11 May 07, 04:09 PM
Startling us all, Gordon Brown has declared that he wants to be the next leader of the Labour Party.
He wants a government of all the talents, he concedes that mistakes were made in Iraq and he wants to listen and learn.
But could he work with Alex Salmond as First Minister?
Asked at his news conference today, he skipped over the question. Significant? Not really, no.
Remember that the official (Labour) fiction is that the issue of the governance of Scotland remains unsettled.
Remember that Alex Salmond has yet to become First Minister. G. Brown was reflecting these circumstances.
Can he work with an SNP administration? He wouldn't have any choice. They got more votes than Labour.
They're more entitled to be in power. Gordon Brown is a democrat.
Would he work for an SNP administration, would he forward their main aim of independence? Of course not - but that is a rather different question, prompting a rather different answer.
PS: Alex Fergusson has now put himself forward for the post of Presiding Officer at Holyrood. (Incidentally, that's not the Man Utd manager. Check the spelling of the name.) But then you knew that was going to happen. You read it here yesterday.
Big deal
- 11 May 07, 03:13 PM
It's a deal! In truth, it's not all that big a deal. But we have a contract between the SNP and the Greens. (Is there a sanity clause? You can't kid me, there ain't no Sanity Claus. Copyright: Groucho and Chico Marx.)
So what is this deal? The SNP and the Greens agree that - they won't build any new nuclear power stations; they'll introduce a law to cut climate-change pollution year on year (instead of vague longer-term targets); and they'll "work to extend the responsibilities of the Scottish Parliament."
And that's it. In return, the Greens will vote for Alex Salmond as First Minister - and will also support his ministerial appointments. The Greens will get one of the SNP's committee convenerships.
Critics are already saying that the Greens haven't extracted much in the way of concessions. No end to road building programmes, for example. Get real, guys.
The Greens bring precisely two votes to the table. Count them - two. The Nats have 47 without their aid.
This is more about the concept of co-operation - although, for Alex Salmond, it's more than handy to be able to count on two votes in his corner, rather than ranged against him.
I say again, this is more about symbolism. This is aimed at the Liberal Democrats.
Water but no Hot Water
- 10 May 07, 09:53 PM
Spent rather more time than I was bargaining for hanging around outside Stormont Castle this evening, waiting for the conclusion of the first meeting of the new power sharing executive. Eventually at about 7.20pm the ministers emerged to be driven away in their limos.
The first meeting is being described as focussed and workmanlike, concentrating as expected on water charges and the peace dividend. Asked by photographers to move his chair before the meeting started, Ian Paisley responded "not an inch".
Increasingly, though, the old DUP Sinn Fein concerns appear to be compartmentalised.
During the day Gerry Adams put out a statement paying tribute to Tony Blair which went on to express the hope that the next Prime Minister would be the last to administer British rule in Ireland. Even as the Executive was meeting, the DUP put out a statement in Ian Paisley's name accusing Mr Adams of "scaremongering" and telling the Sinn Fein President there would not be a United Ireland in his lifetime.
But when I raised this with the First Minister he brushed it aside, insisting such a ritualistic row would not have a negative impact on working relations within the new Executive. "We are what we said we are" he told me. "I am what I said I am. He (nodding to Martin McGuinness) said what he said he was. Sometimes we just don't take it up and you have to rub it in."
Later he admonished me for trying to get him "into hot water" when all he wanted to concentrate on was the kind of water that comes out of your taps.
Swan Lake
- 10 May 07, 04:51 PM
Just can't resist this one.
Rhodri Morgan has just called into the office to be interviewed about Tony Blair's departure.
As he left we subtly asked whether we could look forward to a quiet weekend or not?
He nodded and added: "The one-legged swan is swimming peacefully around Cold Knap lake".
We think that's a yes.
The Full Monty
- 10 May 07, 04:03 PM
I'm sure there must be plenty of good reasons for reading Paddy Ashdown's diaries but this one had probably not struck you.
When he and Tony Blair were discussing the possibility of a coalition with Labour - we're talking the Autumn of 1997 in this instance - you might remember the suggestion that as part of the 'Full Monty' as they called it, the Libs would have been offered two cabinet seats.
But would the leader have been a shoo-in? No. The idea floated was that Menzies Campbell and Alan Beith took the two seats available, leaving Paddy Ashdown as leader from outside the cabinet.
Will anyone have a copy with them in the car as they travel to Llandrindod for the Lib Dem Exec meeting tonight?
I've heard the suggestion made, by pundits not party people, that - if ever a deal was struck - putting Jenny Randerson and Kirsty Williams in the cabinet would make a bitter pill easier for some to swallow. And no harm either, perhaps, in enhancing the two figures most likely to go for the leadership when it next comes up for grabs?
PMs and POs
- 10 May 07, 03:26 PM
What a curious concatenation of circumstances. Tony Blair IS Prime Minister - but soon won't be.
In Scotland, Jack McConnell IS First Minister but soon won't be.
Are the two events connected? More than one Labour MSP - (and, still more strongly, ex MSP) - must wish that TB had stood down earlier.
They believe, in short, that Iraq had turned him from a vote-winning machine into a liability.
Others contest that his contributions to the campaign - which were many - helped turn round a potential calamity into a very close run thing.
Still and all, Tony Blair leaves office as - a) the most successful Labour leader in history; and b) the leader who presided over Labour's first voting share and seats defeat in Scotland for half a century.
He's also, of course, the Prime Minister whose government introduced Scottish self-government.
No great personal enthusiast for devolution, he saw the political necessity of acting - and drove the pre-debated scheme through to enactment, as one or two Cabinet colleagues squawked and muttered.
He backed Donald Dewar when it mattered.
PS: Looks as if the issue of the Presiding Officer at Holyrood could be close to a solution.
The hot gossip - again - is that Tory MSP Alex Fergusson could be up for the job.
It had been thought that the demands of his south-west constituency might prove insuperable.
But the latest thinking is that he might be able to combine both tasks successfully. Further, some argue that it would be a concrete demonstration of the Tories' readiness to make devolution work.
If I'm right, you read it here first. If I'm wrong, I blame a hacker who polluted my blog.
Privy Privileges
- 10 May 07, 02:21 PM
Of course the DUP's motive in getting Peter Robinson and Jeffrey Donaldson on to the Privy Council is to ensure they have access to raw intelligence material on paramilitaries, rather than having to rely on the IMC. But there are also fringe benefits.
For example, you go to the front of the queue for speaking in the Commons. And, if you so desire, you get a uniform to wear. My Westminster colleague Ruth McDonald informs me it's "dark blue court dress, with red collar and gold braid."
And you pledge to defend the realm against "all Foreign Princes, Persons, Prelates, States, or Potentates".
Presumably that does not include the North South Ministerial Council.
Anoraks welcome
- 10 May 07, 01:12 PM
I've no idea whether anoraks read this blog. You're very welcome if you do and to tempt you, here are three things that the uber-anorak, Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at the Department of International Politics in Aberystwyth has spotted.
1. Labour’s vote share on the Constituency vote in Wales (32.2%) was exactly the same as its share on the Constituency vote in Scotland. This is the first time that Labour’s vote share in Wales has NOT been greater than in Scotland since 1924 (when they were also dead level on 40.6%).
2. Labour’s share of the Constituency vote fell in 39 out of 40 constituencies. The only exception was Sue Lent in Cardiff Central. (Their share even fell in Wrexham – it’s just that John Marek’s share fell even further).
3. The rise of the independents/small parties: a candidate from outside the main 4 parties finished in the first four (thus beating at least one main party candidate) in 5 constituencies in 2003, but in 11 in 2007. And the share of the list vote going to ‘Others’ rose to 16.3%, from 11.9% in 2003 and 4.9% in 1999.
Discuss.
Given that Roger's students - as part of their course - conducted a poll in Llanelli and got the result pretty much spot on, I think he's proven, once again, that he's a man worth listening to!
Wall to wall watching
- 10 May 07, 11:15 AM
I'm glued to News 24 and that cavalcade making its way to Sedgefield.
What I should be doing is getting my act together to chair a discussion for the Manylu programme on Radio Cymru. Given that Carwyn Jones is on the panel, alonside the "old blogger" Glyn Davies, the winner and loser in Ceredigion - Elin Jones and John Davies - is should make for an entertaining half an hour.
And plenty to talk about. Glyn may be gone from Cardiff Bay but his blog is still worth reading. He's more or less stated now that he's intending to stand against Lembit Opik MP at the next general election and has issued a direct challenge to Ieuan Wyn Jones to get out his paintbrush and bring that rainbow coalition to life if he gets half a chance.
Ieuan has the chance to claim the glorious mantle of First Minister - but has he got the b***s. Or at least are they big enough to ring his pals Mike German and Nick Bourne to prepare a strategy to create a coalition government. Or will he prop up Rhodri Morgan's 32% Labour vote - either in formal coalition or as compliant Leader of the Opposition (a la Dafydd El). Go on Ieuan. Surprise us. Cast off the wobbly sobriquet. Stand up tall (well, as tall as you can) and take your place in history. I am behind you.
Yesterday I shared a studio with the brand new - well renewed anyway - Presiding Officer who said his money was on something other than a Lib-Lab pact. What? Wouldn't be drawn and yet the talk coming from the Plaid Cymru camp suggests Glyn should keep watching too. The Plaid group meet again next Wednesday and if there's no silver lining around the current cloud surrounding the Labour/Lib Dem talks, then that old rainbow could yet have its chance to shine. (Wow. Extended metaphor or what ...)
Do we really believe that? It would have to be a Plaid/Lib coalition with the Tories providing numbers and support. Can't see the Plaid young guns accepting a full-on deal with the Tories ... For their part they're just pleased to know we're all still talking about them.
Another story to throw in the pot. I seem to remember a few of you asking on election night how long it would be before someone called for Janet Ryder to stand down in favour of Dafydd Wigley. The answer is less than a week. blog is congratulated by one for taking the plunge. The Welsh-language magazine Golwg has more.
As Rosemary Butler, the new Deputy Presiding Officer put it yeterday, 'we live in interesting times'.
Back to News 24.
Bureau of opportunity
- 9 May 07, 05:08 PM
Amid the miasma of speculation at Holyrood, here's something vaguely approaching a fact.
We've found out the members of the new Business Bureau. What do you mean you couldn't care less?
The Business Bureau runs things at Holyrood. In a hung Parliament (and this one isn't so much hung as permanently suspended), the folk who run things are important.
The Bureau decides the timetabling of business - in essence, what's brought forward and when. Parties with at least five members (tough luck, you Greens) are entitled to sit on the bureau.
Their voting clout there reflects the strength they have in the chamber.
The new Bureau will comprise - David McLetchie for the Conservatives; Cathy Jamieson for Labour; Tavish Scott for the Liberal Democrats; and Alasdair Morgan for the SNP. Big league, all.
Former Tory leader, two Cabinet Ministers and a very senior SNP front-bencher. T. Scott and A. Morgan are there on a temporary basis.
Just one snag. They don't have anyone yet to take the chair at their meetings - because that's the Presiding Officer. We should know that name on Monday. If I hear it before, you'll learn it very shortly afterwards.
Equality for all?
- 9 May 07, 03:24 PM
Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness are hosting their first joint reception tonight. Stressing the inclusive approach of their new Executive, the function is devoted to representatives of different ethnic groups.
But over at Westminster the Ulster Unionist MP Lady Sylvia Hermon expressed concern about the rights of another kind of group. Noting that the First Minister is also Moderator of the Free Presbyterian Church, which teaches that homosexuality is evil, she wanted assurances that the rights of young gay people will be protected.
Peter Hain told her the existing laws made it impossible to discriminate against anyone on grounds of their sexuality.
Day One
- 9 May 07, 02:46 PM
Started my day on a building site on the Lower Ormeau Road in Belfast, following Margaret Ritchie on her first day as Social Development Minister. She toured the development, which should provide homes for nearly 200 families. At one point the snappers got her to stare down the barrel of a cement mixer - it should provide them with a novelty shot for the morning's papers.
Over at the Belfast Royal Academy the Education Minister Catriona Ruane was staring down a microscope, before disagreeing with some pro grammar school types on the merits of academic selection.
Nigel Dodds, meanwhile, has been mixing with robots. Not his DUP colleagues but the robotic research being conducted at a new centre at Magee College in Derry.
We should have more of this stuff over the coming days, before the honeymoon period gives way to the tough decisions which accompany attaining power
Dignity on display
- 9 May 07, 01:44 PM
It was Walter Bagehot, I believe, who divided constitutional politics into two sections, the dignified and the efficient.
As I recall, the dignified stuff was the flummery designed to impress the citizens while the efficient was the work, often behind the scenes, where the real business was settled.
I'm probably traducing Bagehot's tome shamefully, for which apologies to Walter, his heirs and successors.
Anyway, the dignified element was fully on display at Holyrood today - for the swearing in of our new MSPs.
Still a bit to go before we can down to the efficient aspects.
I rather like the swearing in ceremony. It contrives to be decently dignified - without being at all pompous or silly.
New and returning members take the loyal oath in English, repeating it in sundry other languages according to choice. Today we had Gaelic, Scots - and Urdu from Bashir Ahmad.
Labour members wore red roses - but were of course outnumbered, just, by the Nationalists with McDiarmid's "little white rose of Scotland" proudly displayed on their outfits.
But still no government. And still no Presiding Officer. Exceptionally, that latter decision has been deferred to next week.
Talks about talks
- 8 May 07, 08:41 PM
So now the proper talking kicks off.
Rhodri Morgan plans to speak to Ieuan Wyn Jones this morning, though the mood of yesterday's Labour group meeting seems to have shifted the odds firmly in favour of the Lib Dems. A deal with them may be 'unpalatable' but the suggestion coming from some quarters is that far more could stomach that thought than a deal with Plaid.
There are hints from some that Labour had been thinking strategically about the effect a deal with Plaid Cymru would have on Plaid's chances come the 2011 election. Why give them a platform? The 'inedible' deal hasn't been spat out yet though so we'll keep listening.
In the meantime over to Mike German and his group: what will they demand and as crucial, what can they deliver?
I hear too that Gwenda Thomas has not been persuaded to take on the role of Deputy Presiding Officer. Step up Rosemary Butler?
Divine Intervention?
- 8 May 07, 05:38 PM
Amidst all the VIPs, few noticed a delegation of humanists who visited Stormont today to discuss the need for our politicians to respect diversity in their decision making. They presented the Alliance's Stephen Farry with a copy of Richard Dawkins' bestseller "The God Delusion".
I'd like to be a fly on the wall should they be able to arrange a meeting with our First Minister who began his speech with the phrase “How true are the words of Holy Scripture, ‘We know not what a day may bring forth’ before going on to quote King Solomon.
Step forward Margo
- 8 May 07, 05:23 PM
More re: the Presiding Officer. Margo MacDonald, who was returned as an Independent MSP for the Lothians, has offered to occupy the post, perhaps for a year.
It's said that would allow Parliament time to decide for the longer term.
Margo is being backed by, among others, the Conservatives (partly because they don't want to give up one of their number to this neutral post.) Others are less keen.
The pressure is on the Tories to give ground (and give up one of their members) because they have declared that they won't enter coalition.
All the other parties - SNP, Labour, LibDem and Green - are potential (I stress, potential) partners in government in some form, now or in the near future. To be blunt, they need all the voting members they can muster at Holyrood.
Why does all this matter? Because, one, the post of PO is highly important - a key ambassador for Scotland.
Because, two, a hung Parliament requires an extremely tough PO to chair plenary sessions and sort things behind the scenes, not least in the business bureau which determines what issues are debated at Holyrood.
Job Done
- 8 May 07, 02:51 PM
Spent all morning in a TV studio following the events inside the Assembly Chamber and Great Hall. It definitely feels like the last of those "tents on the lawn" occasions.
Interesting moments in the First Minister's Office when Ian Paisley took a cup of tea with the VIPs. At first it looked as if Peter Hain might not have a seat but then he squeezed in on the sofa next to Tony and Bertie.
There was a heart stopping moment for Gordon Brown when the First Minister and the Prime Minister discussed their different trajectories with one leaving office at 54 and the other taking office at 81. Tony Blair mused whether he should have learned a lesson from Ian Paisley and stayed on until he was 80.
No handshake between Messrs Paisley and McGuinness, but the First Minister did applaud his Deputy First Minister's speech by tapping the bannister on the stairs of the Great Hall with the palm of his hand. And as they walked away a colleague claims to have seen the Deputy First Minister putting his arm on the First Minister's shoulder.
And there's more...
- 8 May 07, 02:24 PM
How about this for a scenario? Alex Salmond forms a minority government - with the Liberal Democrats in opposition.
The SNP put forward their Bill to hold a referendum on independence.
The Bill is heavily defeated.
After a further breathing space, the LibDems enter talks with the SNP - with the issue of a referendum now settled and off the agenda.
The SNP would have to disavow any prospect of revisiting the referendum.
That's the gossip from one or two (soon to be) MSPs.
Snag is it would involve the SNP participating in what some in their party would see as a ruse.
Equally, though, it would confront us all with the arithmetical reality. There is nothing like a majority in Holyrood for a referendum.
PS - Re: the presiding officer, no deal yet. Holyrood authorities will confirm shortly that the vote may have to be deferred until next week.
Some debate as to whether they have the power to do that - but, if the parties agree, it'll happen.
Behind closed doors
- 8 May 07, 01:58 PM
Just a thought.
If the Lib Dems were to agree to a New Zealand type, confidence and supply deal with Labour, that wouldn't have to go before a special conference. Given the strength of feeling in the party - and Peter Black's is brimming with 'strength of feeling' - avoiding a special conference might appeal.
By the way the Labour group began their meeting early and not where we'd been told. Our cameraman can't get a shot of the meeting because someone's gone to the trouble of taping a piece of paper over the glass panel in the door.
Who's paranoid - us or them?
Dancing on ice
- 8 May 07, 12:57 PM
A full house in the Senedd, a full canteen - and a full-on metaphor from Mike German. Think ice rinks.
The party leaders, he says, are skating round each other, circling the ice, gently brushing against each other to see how it feels ... or words to that effect. Talk about dancing on ice.
It takes time to master triple toe loops and so, the suggestion coming from all camps is that nothing will happen in a hurry. That was the suggestion made by Rhodri Morgan on Radio Cymru and in his interview with Today this morning. Mind you we've been told that in the past, only to find out at the last moment that something's been sorted out behind closed doors - and not the ones we were watching.
The Labour group will be meeting this afternoon at 3pm - 'the M4 corridor AMs and the Valleys AMs' - Huw Lewis' distinction, not mine - coming together to argue their case. A deal with the Lib Dems, or a deal with Plaid. Rhodri didn't spell out which was the inedible, which the unpalatable.
At about the same time the Lib Dems will trooping into yet another committee room.
One item on the agenda: who should be Presiding Officer and Deputy PO? That decision must be made tomorrow. What I was 'hearing' seems to be right. The 'Dafydd and Gwenda show' is what Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives want to see. The Lib Dems favour a Jenny Randerson/Rosemary Butler team.
Skate-off tomorrow.
But does Gwenda Thomas WANT to be Deputy Presiding Officer? She didn't sound so keen this morning ... a case of being pushed and shoved towards the ice?
May 8th
- 8 May 07, 09:16 AM
So it's arrived - restoration day. My colleague Jim Fitzpatrick is busy researching lines for his role presenting our special programme on air on ±«Óãtv1 Northern Ireland from 10:30 am. He's discovered that this was restoration day way back in 1660 when the Convention parliament declared that Charles II was the lawful King of England. Of course, that represented a victory for Cavaliers over Roundheads whereas here we have them in coalition.
For the DUP, today's events have been tinged with sadness with the premature death of George Dawson, known for his evangelical principles and business acumen. On his way into the building, Ian Paisley told reporters it was a sad day but also a special day, which he hoped would pave the way towards peace and prosperity.
On his arrival, Martin McGuinness told the press they were about to witness "not hype but history". Echoes of the infamous Blair "hand of history" soundbite there. Will we ever witness the end of the era of awful alliteration?
Sleep on it
- 7 May 07, 06:43 PM
Seems as if the talks between the SNP and the Greens went well.
Doesn't look at this stage as if they will conclude in a formal coalition.
Two reasons for that. Even if they strike a full deal, the Greens only bring two MSPs to the table. More to the point, the Greens seem happier with something short of a full pact.
Robin Harper emerged from the talks at St Andrews House indicating that he would prefer a deal that's known as "confidence and supply".
The confidence bit means they would resist attempts to bring down the government in a confidence vote. The supply bit means that the Greens would vote for the SNP administration's budget.
But the Greens will now consult overnight before re-entering talks tomorrow.
There are still sticking points, not least over transport policy where the Greens are decidedly sceptical about new roads projects - such as dualling the A9. Think there will be a deal, though, of some species.
Which still leaves the question - can the Liberal Democrats be brought into negotiations?
At this stage, I think not. Alex Salmond won't rule out his independence referendum in advance of negotiations. (See earlier blog)
More to the point, the LibDems simply aren't over-keen on considering coalition at this stage.
They're licking their electoral wounds - and, to be blunt, they're not hugely trusting towards the SNP.
That could change - but not, I suspect, in the short term. Stand by for minority government with one A. Salmond as First Minister.
PS: Anybody want to be Presiding Officer at Holyrood? Alex Fergusson of the Tories was the hot tip - followed swiftly by an equally hot denial from the man himself.
Two problems. Firstly, given the hung Parliament, every party needs all the seats they've got - they can't afford to lose one of their number to the neutrality of the chair. Secondly, who wants a job which carries its own redundancy at the end of the term? The PO has to quit his/her own party to take the post.
That means they have no party machine to help them get re-elected in four years time. Most folk thought George Reid deserved a second term - but the parties wouldn't stand aside to let him stay in Ochil.
Is it time for Holyrood to follow the Westminster convention which allows the Speaker to be uncontested in his/her constituency?
Staggering stuff
- 7 May 07, 05:23 PM
And so there I was standing outside St Andrews House in Edinburgh, waiting for coalition talks to begin. Nothing particularly exceptional about that.
In 1999, I stood outside the hideous building on the Royal Mile that temporarily housed our MSPs.
(No, not the General Assembly building – that’s where they met. I’m talking about the monstrosity, now thankfully demolised, where they had their offices.)
Anyway, I’ve been here before, both in 1999 and 2003. Slight change this time.
Inside St Andrews House today, discussing government options with Her Majesty’s civil servants in attendance, were two parties who believe in ending the Union between Scotland and England.
No need to alert the palace, though. The largest of those parties, the Scottish National Party, only wants to end the political Union of 1707.
What they have taken to calling the “regal Union†of 1603 would be preserved. The other party, the Greens, only have two MSPs and are more of a hazard to themselves than the state.
However, let us dump this easy satire. This is staggering stuff. Labour are disgruntled spectators while the SNP are inside the corridors of power.
I witnessed one SNP aide sneaking a fly puff outside the Scottish Executive HQ. He was wearing a pin-striped suit.
And carrying a rolled umbrella.
So, how’s government shaking down in Scotland? A deal with the Greens looks pretty set.
But, to gain a majority, the SNP need to strike a bargain with the Liberal Democrats.
The LibDems won’t play as long as the SNP insist on a referendum on independence.
The SNP aren’t exactly insisting – one can hear the faint but unmissable sound of compromise – but Alex Salmond isn’t prepared to dump his referendum entirely, in advance of talks.
Both are right.
The LibDems say you couldn’t have a stable four-year partnership while the issue of independence hovered in the background.
For the avoidance of doubt, they’re against independence – and a referendum.
However, the SNP can scarcely be expected to abandon their referendum without pre-discussion.
After all, they have been in existence since 1934 to win independence – not, primarily, power.
Any wriggle room? Can’t see much.
This isn’t like tuition fees or council reform.
You can’t convene a committee of the great and good to take minutes and waste hours while the parties get over their mutual suspicion of each other. You either hold a referendum or you don’t.
The Nats say yes, the Libs say no.
Alex Salmond wants a coalition. He wants stable government to show that he could run Scotland under devolution, to help convince sceptical Scots that he poses no threat, that they could safely opt for independence.
With gloriously symmetrical irony, to achieve that stability, he has to shelve the demand for a referendum in this term of Parliament.
He can have stable power – or he can pursue the purity of his demand for a referendum. He can’t have both.
You doubt me? Do the sums. In minority government, he wouldn’t have the votes to get a referendum Bill through Holyrood.
The LibDems won’t sign a coalition package which includes that Bill.
My guess?
Right now, I think we’re headed for minority SNP government while the LibDems lick their wounds and look for signs that the Nationalists mean it when they say they will govern in Scotland’s interests, avoiding unnecessary conflict.
Will Alex Salmond be First Minister? Yes. Labour will vote against him. The LibDems and the Tories will sit on their hands, accepting that he has more of a mandate than others to take office. I say again. Staggering stuff.
Fun at the fair
- 6 May 07, 11:08 PM
A day in Barry Island reminding the children they have a mother. The two year old was oblivious to the election and had no idea his pal William's Mum was an agent for a candidate in the Vale of Glamorgan. We've never really spoken but I'll be checking first thing Tuesday morning whether she has any nails left.
The three year old had grasped there was some kind of race going on.
"Pwy 'nillodd y ras 'te?" "So who won?"
"Mr Morgan. Then Mr Jones, Mr Bourne and Mr German came fourth".
She's disappointed. Her best pal's Dad wanted Mr German to win and so she did too.
"Ah well, don't worry because Mr Morgan did win but he didn't win by that much so he might ask Mr German to help him a bit".
Silence.
"So is he friends with Mr German then?"
I buy her a Fab.
Mr German's a bit short of friends these days.
The Lib Dem shp is not a happy ship. That much is obvious. When stories emerge about pre-meeting meetings between the six AMs turning into slanging matches, then things are not good.
The group and the National Executive meet again next Thursday. Between now and then Mike German has been given the go-ahead to speak to all parties to find out what is on the negotiating table.
He's got to do that with one AM, Peter Black, openly calling for his head. No other AM has joined in the hunt and if they're straight, they're not doing so quietly either. Now, they say, is not to the time to start undermining your leader. Yes the election was a disaster. Yes he has to take responsiblity. But when the party should be concentrating on getting the right deal, or accepting that no deal is the best deal, now is not the time to ditch your leader.
When then?
The message coming from Kirsty Williams is that she is not about to throw her hat into the ring. Mr Black is fighting his own corner - not hers. Should Mike German stand down, or should he decide not to stand for re-election as group leader - and remember, according to the party's rules he must do that 'within a year' of the Assembly Election - then she may well go for it. But while he's there? No.
What would the Lib Dems want from Labour? Or more significantly, what would they be confident of getting through a special conference?
Could Mike German come home with less than a promise on PR in local government? To force agreement on that 'deal-breaker', being seen to have Labour over a barrel and forcing them to give in ... now that would help. It would be a clever move to insist on a referendum on greater powers for the Assembly. Plaid would be bound to do the same. No harm in heading them off. And then something for the voters who put their faith in the Lib Dems and who don't care one bit about PR or referenda. Something on hospitals?
The Lib Dems could, of course, go into coalition with Plaid, then strike some sort of a deal with the Tories. Hey there's no end of New Zealand models available. What's the favourite amongst Lib Dems? Deal with Labour, deal with others, no deal? "Finely balanced" I'm told.
By the way how does this strike you: Dafydd Elis-Thomas as Presiding Officer, Gwenda Thomas as his deputy? Not sure what sort of model you'd call that but it's what I'm hearing.
It's over
- 4 May 07, 05:59 PM
And it's over. SNP 47. Labour 46. Tory 17. LibDem 16. Greens 2. Margo Macdonald 1.
No coalition on the cards - unless SNP, LibDems and Greens can bury their differences.
Looks like SNP minority - if that can be achieved. Key point - that means an SNP referendum Bill would be doomed to fail.
Lights back on
- 4 May 07, 05:38 PM
On my feet, just about.
Time only for a quick update from a Senedd that is filling up with the 15 strong Plaid Group downstairs and I've spotted a very jolly Jonathan Morgan. Dai Llewellyn apparently shook his hand warmly at the Cardiff North count, said he was a lovely bloke and that "if I wasn't wearing this rosette I'd have voted for you."
I gather Rhodri Morgan, Peter Hain and Labour big hitters are meeting this afternoon in Transport House. Not officially to discuss last night's results according to the party but hard to believe they won't share a few thoughts on where they go from here ...
Someone else has been having a meeting too. Don't forget how crucial the support of Lib Dem council leaders and groups will be to any deal Mike German may want to strike with Labour. It's not just AMs he'll have to worry about and if is anything to go by, he'll have his work cut out there too.
Four council leaders have met already and and are of the same mind: that Mr German should talk to all the parties before making any moves towards coalition and that he should not have a preferred partner in mind.
Let the talking begin ... jsut as long as we get to hear about it ... and when everyone's had some sleep.
Inquiry promise
- 4 May 07, 04:54 PM
Alex Salmond has said that Labour has lost the moral right to dominate Scotland.
Speaking in Edinburgh, he said that, if given the chance to lead, he would take Scotland forward with humility, in the interests of Scotland.
Mr Salmond also said that - if installed as First Minister - he would immediately announce a judicial inquiry into the voting confusion.
Adding up time
- 4 May 07, 04:16 PM
More gossip.
How about 46 Labour (if they make that) plus 16 LibDems (if they make that) plus three Green (if THEY make that.) That adds up to 65. That adds up, just, to a coalition majority. Possible? Right now, almost anything's possible
Do it all again?
- 4 May 07, 04:04 PM
So who's going to win, then? More accurately, who's going to be the largest party at Holyrood? Right now, maybe, perhaps, it could just be the SNP.
Couple of constituencies to go - plus a couple of lists where they started the night ahead of Labour.
Either way, don't expect an early coalition deal. Labour plus LibDem doesn't equal a majority. I can't see the LibDems putting up with the compromises of coalition if it doesn't add up to actual control of Parliament.
That would be responsbility without power. Ditto SNP plus LibDems. So either the largest party has a stab at minority - perhaps with "understanding" from other parties. Or we run the elections again.
The Sky's The Limit
- 4 May 07, 03:22 PM
After a brief period off air, to allow my Welsh and Scottish colleagues to monopolise the system, I'm back in blogland. Sitting in the Stormont Great Hall this morning waiting for an interview with Ian Paisley, I was treated to some entertainment from "Sky's the Limit" a performance troupe of young adults with special needs. They were rehearsing for Tuesday's ceremony, to be attended by Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern and - it seems - Senator Ted Kennedy.
It's all systems go at Stormont with workers erecting marquees and press stands. But interviewed for Inside Politics, Ian Paisley injects a bit of uncertainty into the proceedings. He warns Gordon Brown that so far the peace dividend is insufficient. And he says in no uncertain terms that the DUP's participation in Tuesday's "pantomime" cannot be taken for granted.
Personally I can't see the DUP walking away from Tuesday, but it may serve their interests to try to keep the Treasury guessing about their intentions.
Ah bourach
- 4 May 07, 12:51 PM
Let's cut to the chase here re: this voting guddle. There was a big problem getting out the correct number of postal ballots. There was a huge challenge for voters in filling in the ballot forms. There was then a problem with e-counting.
That means the authorities are saying:
1. we couldn't get all the ballot papers out
2. they were so complex, folk couldn't fill them in
3. when they finally filled them in, we couldn't count the blasted things!
There's a splendid Gaelic word, bourach. It means an utter, hideous mess. This is bourach, Mach Five.
Signing off
- 4 May 07, 06:18 AM
When the counters are sent home, I think it may be time to sign off.
Two big stories to come in the Vale of Glamorgan and in Bridgend... but always good to leave your audience wanting more!
Nos/Bore da!
A warm welcome
- 4 May 07, 06:04 AM
The Welsh Assembly has its first AM from an ethnic minority. Welcome to Mohammed Asghar AM.
But something else to chew on: the BNP came within 2580 votes of winning a seat on the North Wales regional list.
Tommy Sheridan out
- 4 May 07, 05:44 AM
And Tommy Sheridan is out!
He has failed to win on the list in Glasgow - as did Rosie Kane, his former colleague.
Four seats on the list in Glasgow for the SNP - including Scotland's first MSP from a Scots-Asian background, Bashir Ahmad.
A quiz for you
- 4 May 07, 05:36 AM
What do 5,500 jobs in St Athan get you, if you're the Labour AM in the ?
Answer: a third recount.
Looking ahead
- 4 May 07, 05:32 AM
After all the sound and fury...
±«Óãtv WALES FORECAST @ 0515
Labour: 26
Plaid: 14
Conservative: 12
Lib Dems: 7
Independent: 1
Coalition talk
- 4 May 07, 05:28 AM
You've hated it throughout the campaign, though you'll have heard plenty of it. Now that we DO have facts - not all the facts, granted but some facts - I'm surely allowed to whisper the word at least.
IF the Vale of Glamorgan goes Conservative and Carmarthen West, then Labour will be shoved a step nearer Mike German's door. Who might he take with him to a Labour-led cabinet? Jenny Randerson, or Kirsty Williams: both scored huge victories tonight. Mind you there's the deputy presiding officer job up for grabs...
Election 'total mess'
- 4 May 07, 05:20 AM
Count at Eastwood suspended.
Count at Edinburgh in jeopardy.
This is a total mess.
Sheridan may be out
- 4 May 07, 04:59 AM
More on the minors.
Gossip - and it is just that - is that Tommy Sheridan may not be elected in Glasgow.
At the very least, it's marginal at the moment.
Vote supension 'disgrace'
- 4 May 07, 04:44 AM
And so in Bishopbriggs they've suspended the count in Strathkelvin and Bearsden.
That is because the computer system cannot validate the votes that have been counted so far.
That adds to problems elsewhere.
This is, frankly, a disgrace.
Patterns emerging?
- 4 May 07, 04:37 AM
I'm back to rumours but might John Marek's hold on Wrexham have been loosened by Labour?
Independents have been doing well all night - in fact all campaign - but Labour's blogger, Lesley Griffiths is looking pretty relaxed.
Could we really be down to just the one indy in Cardiff Bay? It'll be a lonely old place for Trish Law... and Cardiff Bay's tea room really wouldn't be the same place without Mr Marek holding court.
Patterns emerging?
Labour's lost significantly on percentages but just swung it in more seats than they might have thought four hours ago. You get the feeling Rhodri Morgan will still be around after next week if he wants to be. Yma o hyd Rhodri, outlasting Tony Blair.
The Lib Dems must be glad they booked that room in Llandrindod for a pow-wow on Sunday.
Plaid? Still not getting anywhere near breaking out of their heartlands.
And the Tories? Best is yet to come for them perhaps.
Hang on in there. Well you've stayed up this late!
Struggle for socialists
- 4 May 07, 04:19 AM
Looks like the wee parties are getting squeezed out on the list.
John Swinburne of the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party reckons it's looking tough for him at least.
But he says "hope springs eternal".
If he loses, he's off to his caravan.
Re the others, the two Socialist parties (SSP and Solidarity) seem to be struggling.
The Greens could slip back from their present seven seats.
More to come, though.
Rejected papers 'disastrous'
- 4 May 07, 04:03 AM
More on the voting system.
Robin Harper of the Greens - whose party look to be struggling - has called the figures on rejected ballot papers "disastrous".
One of my readers has told me that they were given advice to fold their ballot paper - despite the guidance, nationally, that they shouldn't.
This is a serious guddle.
Lib Dems 'do it again'
- 4 May 07, 04:00 AM
And so they've done it again.
The Lib Dems have taken Dunfermline West from Labour - just as they did in the Westminster by-election last year.
Language matters
- 4 May 07, 04:00 AM
I used to teach Welsh to adults in Risca. From listening to the returning officer in Newport, I should have started an extra class there too.
Come on Newport! This is insulting. Huw Edwards is threatening to turn down the sound in the studio. Don't tell me you couldn't have found a decent learner or a native speaker SOMEWHERE?
Sturgeon wins Govan seat
- 4 May 07, 03:48 AM
And so Alex's deputy is back too!
Nicola Sturgeon has won Glasgow Govan - that seat of historic memories.
She took the seat from Gordon Jackson.
As predicted
- 4 May 07, 03:47 AM
So as predicted, the rumble for the Tumble was won by Plaid and a far more stateswomanlike win than in 1999.
And Roger Scully? You must be a very good tutor. Your students were BANG on! 51% and 35% it was.
And talking about good news for Plaid Aberconwy looking good for them... and will they push Alun Pugh into third in Clwyd West? Less good for them? Bye bye any chances Dafydd Wigley ever had of making it to Cardiff.
And Carmarthen West is tight but might the Tories edge it? Another woman heading to Cardiff Bay if so.
Right - better start composing.
So farewell then Alun Pugh.
Your cost you dearly.
More to come... bad jokes about bikes etc...
But another Alun, Alun Davies must now be on his way to Cardiff as Labour's list man in Mid and West. That vineyard will just have to wait a bit Alun.
Time to gossip
- 4 May 07, 03:22 AM
Is there really a chance that Labour could lose their deposit in ?
Mind you if the Lib Dems have time to gossip, must mean they've given up on winning the seat from Plaid...
'Wind of change'
- 4 May 07, 03:13 AM
A wind of change blowing through Scottish politics.
Alex Salmond's description of the night's results.
A deliberate echo of Harold Macmillan's famous speech about Africa?
I think so - I think the SNP leader was reflecting that Labour has led in Scotland for 50 years.
Since Macmillan was Prime Minister.
Salmond returns as MSP
- 4 May 07, 03:10 AM
He's back!
Alex Salmond has won Gordon, coming from third place.
The rest of the night will determine whether he returns, leading the largest party.
Mr Salmond condemned the confusion which has resulted in thousands of votes being rejected.
Quick change
- 4 May 07, 03:06 AM
Vale of Clwyd goes something like this...
Labour ahead by 50... oh no,
Tories ahead by 11... oh no,
Labour hold by 92.
That's what I call marginal.
Time to move
- 4 May 07, 03:03 AM
Remember I told you yesterday about that press officer who was worried what his boss would find when he came back to Cardiff Bay (yes when, not if - he's loyal)... because his ministerial office had been stripped bare?
Well he's back. Andrew Davies has taken Swansea West. Lib Dems a very good second, again.
Get that furniture back in boys...
The London papers
- 4 May 07, 02:46 AM
Why does Peter Hain think Labour may be facing "a difficult night" in Wales?
His view: "Ninety per cent of morning papers in Wales are produced in London rather than in Wales. It's been very difficult for us to get our message across against a difficult national background, and that has obviously affected us in a number of key seats, and we'll have to see how they turn out."
Phew. Not complaining about us... yet!
Tory candidate setback
- 4 May 07, 02:44 AM
That result in Dumfries - where Labour won - is a huge personal setback for the Tory candidate, Murray Tosh.
He's been an MSP since 1999 but is now almost certainly out of Parliament because he's lowly ranked on the tory list in the south of Scotland.
Mr Tosh was the deputy presiding officer in the last Parliament.
Fairer, greener Wales
- 4 May 07, 02:37 AM
A week is a long time in politics... a couple of hours is enough to make me think that the LDs won't quite get but that if they don't, that means instead of NO Mr German, it COULD mean Mr AND Mrs German in Cardiff Bay.
Would they get to sit next to each other? It'd save on the petrol anyway... fairer, greener Wales and all that.
Craigie beats the odds
- 4 May 07, 02:36 AM
Cathie Craigie has held Cumbernauld against all the odds.
It was the top SNP target - at least among Labour seats.
So big swings across Scotland to the SNP - but this a disappointment for the SNP.
Salmond set to win seat
- 4 May 07, 02:28 AM
Tip from the north-east is that Alex Salmond has managed to take Gordon - from third place behind the Tories and the incumbent LibDems.
Who's behind?
- 4 May 07, 02:23 AM
50 votes in it in the so it's recount time.
But who ASKED for a recount? In other words who's behind by 50 votes.
The Tories I hear.
No advert for democracy
- 4 May 07, 02:04 AM
The majority for Labour in Airdrie was 1446.
The number of rejected ballot papers was 1536.
Nobody is suggesting that all of those rejected papers were for Labour's rival, the SNP.
But it is scarcely a good advert for democracy.
Hey - a result!!
- 4 May 07, 02:01 AM
Sorry to mention Newport East again - never thought it would take over my blog - but Lib Dems think they may just have missed out. Mr German will be... well what? Disappointed or ever so slightly relieved?
Hey. A result!!
Academic exercise
- 4 May 07, 01:57 AM
I think I can now reveal what a group of students - studying Welsh and UK Politics at Aberystwyth and doing a course on polls - came up with when they had a bit of a practice in Llanelli a few weeks ago. (Just 300 people and just practising, remember.)
We took one look and thought they might scrape a 2:2.
They were:
Plaid 51%
Labour 35%
Tories 9%
Lib Dems 5%
No result yet but keep this to hand when it comes in.
They may yet deserve a first. Hear that Mr Scully?
SNP falling short?
- 4 May 07, 01:53 AM
For now, of course, we're only getting constituencies.
And it looks - maybe, perhaps - as if the SNP may fall short of their ambition of taking 20 new seats.
However, gossip - and it is just that at this stage - suggests that the SNP may be performing well on the top-up regional list by contrast with 2003 where they slumped badly in this section.
Long way to go.
Flooding in
- 4 May 07, 01:43 AM
Heck!
The very next email that came in after I mentioned things flooding in was an offer of cut-price Viagra.
Wonderfully well-timed spam there! Spooky.
Near and far
- 4 May 07, 01:40 AM
Sheffield... Australia... your comments are flooding in from near and far.
At least something's flooding in. Come on - a result! Please!
Coalition talk already?
- 4 May 07, 01:22 AM
Rumours coming in from Bridgend. The man with the quietest blog in Wales - Carwyn Jones - might be getting nervous. The Tories say they're pushing him close.
Now what did Rhodri Morgan mean when he said that Labour will do 'the right thing' for Wales? Coalition talk already... before any results are in?
The best stories
- 4 May 07, 01:15 AM
Nia G did indeed do better... much better. Hats off to her for such honesty. The people ganged up on us and gave us a kicking.
Just read that the SNP have narrowly missed winning a target seat. Any chance we in Wales - and not Scotland - will do it again and confound everyone by coming up with some of the best stories of the night?
All depends on those list seats and whether they keep the Labour fat out of the fire... keep counting.
Over 1,000 papers rejected
- 4 May 07, 01:10 AM
1195 rejected ballot papers in Glasgow Kelvin - won by Pauline McNeill for Labour.
This is becoming a story of the night.
Not the story, but A story.
A scoop
- 4 May 07, 01:08 AM
Just stopped talking about Radio Cymru's scoop and can get typing again.
Nia Griffith MP has thrown in the Llanelli towel.
Nice one Radio Cymru.
Now she's telling our viewers they've lost Llanelli because the Lib Dems chose a candidate from Cardiff (son of the man making headway in Newport East by the way... yes, I've done my homework).
Come on Nia... you can come up with something better than that.
Question over first minister
- 4 May 07, 01:00 AM
"The leader of the largest party will be in poll position to become first minister" - Jack McConnell.
But he declined to speculate on what might happen.
Caution urged over swing
- 4 May 07, 12:55 AM
Jack McConnell says we should be cautious not to read too much into the 7% swing in the SNP's favour in his constituency.
However, repeating that swing across Scotland would bring several Labour seats into the SNP camp.
Early gossip from Paisley, though, is that the SNP may fall short in taking Paisley South.
Increase in spoilt papers
- 4 May 07, 12:47 AM
Big number of spoilt papers in Motherwell and Wishaw under the new counting system.
Some 970 invalid papers, that's 3.7% of the system.
Much more than usual in the past.
Douglas Alexander, the Scottish Secretary, says he has already requested an inquiry into apparent problems getting postal ballots out to voters.
Maybe a wider inquiry will now be needed.
Schadenfreude anyone?
- 4 May 07, 12:37 AM
To those of you watching us and not listening to Garry and co on Radio Cymru, we've all missed him telling listeners that he think Labour will do worse than when he was Labour leader in Wales.
Schadenfreude anyone? And not a parachute in sight.
McConnell holds seat
- 4 May 07, 12:32 AM
Jack McConnell has held Motherwell and Wishaw with a reduced share of the vote.
SNP second, seven per cent swing to them.
Welsh-speaking Tories
- 4 May 07, 12:26 AM
Ceredigion is tight... Caerphilly is tight... rumour is that Preseli Pembrokeshire is not. Might we gain another Welsh-speaking Tory before the night is out? Radio Cymru producers would be cockahoop!
So. How low will Labour go? Is Ken Skates starting to think that 27 was a bit generous? All depends on whether they've got their vote out and can regain on the roundabouts what they look like they may lose on the swings.
Does 25 count as good or bad? Remember that Rhodri Morgan said he would 'know' what a bad night was and would go. The suggestion made to me tonight was that 25 now counted as good enough.
What do you think?
Bets are on
- 4 May 07, 12:00 AM
Put your money where your mouth is.
Patrick Harvie of the Greens has £50 riding on a bet that his party will get more seats than the seven they achieved last time.
Left vote split
- 3 May 07, 11:56 PM
Tommy Sheridan has forecast that the Left vote will split between his Solidarity and his former party, the Scottish Socialists.
He says there may not be room for both, given a turnout of around 60%.
Mr sheridan says he had hoped for a higher turnout.
In Glasgow, Tommy Sheridan and his former colleague Rosie Kane are head to head on the list.
Beating the forecasts?
- 3 May 07, 11:51 PM
The chat in advance was that the authorities were being deliberately pessimistic about declaration times under the new counting system.
Gossip now is that they could beat those forecasts by around an hour.
Motherwell and Wishaw expected very shortly.
First declaration?
- 3 May 07, 11:46 PM
Looks like Motherwell and Wishaw may be the first to declare.
That is the seat currently held by one McConnell, J.
Wonder if he'll also be first in the race to govern Scotland?
New horizons
- 3 May 07, 11:40 PM
Let's just say that I may have to start mugging up on the Lib Dem candidate in Newport East as well as the Conservative in Newport West. Just in case... We don't want a Brian Hancock moment a la Islwyn in 1999, after all.
News is the turnout is low. And if that's true in both first and second votes, could Mr M German be starting to feel nervous?
And if the Labour turnout is truly, truly low in both Newport constituencies, could Labour really lose its Mr Nice Guy + captain of the Assembly Football team and the Chair of Culture in the last Assembly?
Alyn and Deeside might be so fed up of holding the title of "lowest turnout in Assembly elections" (24%) that it looks like 38% of voters have turned out.
Lamenting insider insight
- 3 May 07, 11:39 PM
Just spotted a face in the crowd at the Aberdeen count.
Derek Barrie of the Scottish LibDems.
Derek may not be familiar to all of you - but he's an astute analyst of electoral politics.
In fact, I've relied on him - and others like him in other parties - for insider intelligence on what's happening at counts.
He and the others will struggle now, given that it's machines rather than people counting the papers.
It's hard to peep over a machine's shoulder!
Pity. I'll miss that insight.
Salmond 'confident' of isles vote
- 3 May 07, 11:21 PM
We won't know until tomorrow - but Alex Salmond is saying he is "extremely confident" of winning the Western Isles from Labour.
Mr Salmond deployed a helicopter to fly round key marginal seats. But helicopter problems have delayed the count in the Western Isles until tomorrow.
Turnout up - helicopter down
- 3 May 07, 11:09 PM
The polls have closed - and amid the miasma of uncertainty, one fact.
A helicopter has had problems collecting ballot boxes from Barra, meaning that the count in the Western Isles will be delayed.
That is of course a key contest between Labour and the SNP - plus its contribution to the regional list count.
Other gossip? Turnout looks to be up - perhaps well up - on 2003.
Bright sunshine and a fascinating contest seem to have drawn the voters out. There was talk of queues in urban seats.
Turnout could be around 60 per cent, perhaps even higher.
Early talk? Labour strategists insist their core vote in working class areas and among pensioners is pretty solid. But they’re fretting a bit more about "aspirational" areas.
A rumour
- 3 May 07, 10:41 PM
News - no, a rumour - from Ynys Mon. Turnout isn't as high as Plaid Cymru had hoped. If true, not good news for Plaid, or should I say, for their leader. Our poll for tonight's programme has come up with a figure of 58% for turnout. Scarcely believe...
The title music has struck up. I'd better concentrate on the job in hand.
Writing on the wall
- 3 May 07, 10:29 PM
Just popped up to the Radio Wales studio and scribbled on a piece of paper was this:
24
14
13
7
2
Conservative candidate Glyn Davies' prediction. Ah, but which way round are the 14/13 Glyn?
In the name of party morale I said one thing (he whispered) but I think it'll be the other way round (he whispered v v quietly).
And we're off
- 3 May 07, 10:04 PM
Let's kick off with rumours doing the rounds that no-one has checked out. What other night of the year do we get to do that?
The Tories are looking good, very good in Newport West. So good we're all checking out Matthew Evans' profile rather more carefully than we had until now. He used to run a catering business... well there you go. May come in handy later.
Plaid are confident in Carmarthen West, more so there than in Llanelli, though that's not looking bad for them. Aberconwy? Is it me or are they sounding less confident than they were? Tory march?
Nothing from the Lib Dems yet. They've probably just given up leafletting...
And Labour? Rhodri Morgan last seen standing outside Tesco in Whitchurch I hear, doing everything he can to push his people to the polls.
Has he done it? Early, early rumours suggest turnout in Labour wards in the Gower, in the Vale of Glamorgan are very low. Even the Secretary of State, Peter Hain, is starting to sound a bit nervous (when no-one's listening) - or so I'm told.
Stick with us.
No comment
- 3 May 07, 06:21 AM
And he’s back. But only for now. It’s election day – and I’m in purdah. (Small seaside town in the East Neuk of Fife, rather nice actually.)
Means I can’t blog for real. No comment, no analysis, not even any cheap gags.
However, I will be up all night – and all of the day. (Wasn’t that a hit song – or am I losing it? Answer on one side of the paper only.)
During that overnight vigil, I’ll be blogging constantly. Watch out for that.
Over to you
- 2 May 07, 09:42 PM
Will the last person to leave the Senedd tonight switch off the lights?
Well, ok, the ±«Óãtv office in the Senedd. And that'll be my job.
Downstairs the Neuadd is still jam packed full of technicians, unravelling cables, putting up their lights and rostra. Tomorrow night the Wales 60 party will be in full swing and the polls will be about to close.
Wandering about the Senedd this afternoon I bumped into a government press officer, musing over what his boss will find when he makes it back to Cardiff Bay (when, not if - loyalty you see). The offices have been stripped, paperwork gone, walls bare - ready for the next lot. A bit of a shock, he said, seeing it like that - concentrates the mind.
Names have been removed from doors, (probably stuck in a drawer somewhere), waiting for the announcement of the next cabinet. And that's where you come in of course.
So, off to do one more stint tonight and then - it's over to you.
And the winner is…….
- 2 May 07, 06:13 PM
The Oscars for ugly people. Thus one of my esteemed colleagues described elections. Seems a tad brutal – but I couldn’t resist. So here they are.
Best Photocall: Annabel Goldie and the Tories by a street. The quad bikes, the launch in a kids play area – and, above all, today with Bella dangling from an abseiling rope in Leith. (The Tories would also win worst photocall for that early gag with the silent megaphones outside Holyrood – but no matter.)
Best Manifesto Launch: The most confident, the most polished was that offered by the SNP. Labour’s was effective, Nicol Stephen’s microphone didn’t work. On balance, it has to be the Nationalists.
Best Campaign Event: Despite my resolution to eschew business breakfasts, I’ll go for the Edinburgh gig addressed by Gordon Brown and Jack McConnell. Strong speeches, strong message – and an extended opportunity to question both afterwards.
Best Honed Message: Nicol Stephen with his response to the coalition question. From the outset, he was ready (I suppose he’s had all that time in power to prepare.) By the close, he had his answer word for word. Ready to talk, no to independence referendum.
The astute among you – and readers of this blog are scientifically established as the most astute folk on the globe – will have spotted that I have included each of the majors.
All have won and all must have prizes, to quote that great political observer, Lewis Carroll.
Swinging cats
- 2 May 07, 03:26 PM
As someone once said - and that someone is standing in this election - "I haven't had time to swing a cat" (think about it) so sorry for the silence and slow approval of your comments.
Tomorrow night there will be help at hand to keep things going.
There'lll also be a constituency results service via text messages to your mobile. If you want to be 'among the first' to know the results - handy word that, among - and ring your friends in the middle of the night with the news that Wrexham's gone this way and Clwyd West has gone that - then sign up for the service by going to this address, click on the box saying "results by text" and that'll explain how you can register.
A late contender for best joke of the campaign comes from the Lib Dems, though I'm told it's been around in different guises for a while.
"Responding to Plaid Cymru's claim that there will be a 'late surge' for them, Jenny Willott MP, campaign chair for the Welsh Liberal Democrats said: "We've more chance of seeing the late Serge Gainsbourg in this campaign, than a late surge to Plaid. "
Boom boom.
I saw the Electoral Commissioner this morning and it looks as though the tougher registration system hasn't put people of sending in postal votes. The number hasn't dipped, which is what they might have expected.
Oh and I hear Sky News have been trying to poach the Shadow Welsh Secretary from us. They've been schmoozing the Welsh Tories and trying to talk them into letting Cheryl Gillan appear on their broadcasts tomorrow night, rather than a "local results programme". That's us by the way.
Perhaps we'll let her send them a few texts ...
Why no singing?
- 1 May 07, 05:46 PM
Altogether now, happy birthday to you, happy birthd….. what’s the matter? Why no singing? Three hundred years ago today, the Union was born. (Conception came earlier, the motivations for mutual attraction remain disputed.)
Yes, it’s the 300th birthday of the political tie-up between Scotland and England.
So, presumably there’s joyous celebration. Street parties abound.
To quote Marx, let there be dancing in the streets and necking in the parlours. (That’s Groucho Marx, by the way.)
Well, scarcely. Today’s historic date was marked by a smile and an enigma. The smile - more of a grin really - came from Tony Blair in Edinburgh as he forecast that a Scot will succeed him in office. For the avoidance of doubt, he meant Gordon Brown.
And the enigma? Just what is the future for the Union whose birthday we commemorate.
Opinion polls suggest that the Scottish National Party is leading in the election contest for Scotland's Parliament. In case it had escaped your attention, the SNP wants to introduce the Act of Union (Repeal) Bill.
So, are Scots utterly and irrevocably sick of the tie-up with England? Apparently not.
Indeed, an ICM poll for the ±«Óãtv suggests that Scots are more inclined than the English to say that the Union has been beneficial to their particular nation.
The SNP say they're only seeking Scottish domestic government for now. There would be a referendum before independence.
Alex Salmond insists he’d co-operate with the UK government – including G. Brown.
Labour disputes that, saying that an SNP administration would create conflict from day one.
But here’s Labour's dilemma. Their strongest counter to the SNP is to assert and proclaim the economic advantages of the Union to Scotland.
But, to deliver that message, they field the Prime Minister who is - how to put it - less than universally popular after ten years in power.
Labour's strongest card is also, by extension, their weakest.
Tony Blair knows that - which is why he repeatedly says he'll soon be gone: that giving him one last kicking won't affect him but might place the union in jeopardy. Labour's conundrum, Scotland’s choice.
From Fudge to Fadge
- 1 May 07, 04:34 PM
Stormont has been famous for its fudge in the past. But now Ian Paisley is trying to build its reputation for fadge. He told the EU's top diplomat Jose Manuel Barroso that Ulster produced the best food in Europe and extolled the virtues of "fadge" potato bread. He promised to give Senor Barroso a big feed of fadge whenever he returned to Stormont, adding that if he didn't eat it all he was sure "the Deputy" (Martin McGuinness) would "gobble it all up".
Away with the fairies
- 1 May 07, 03:57 PM
When I arrived at Stormont this morning to cover the visit by the EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso I passed a man sitting on the steps. Beside him was a flat cap inside of which there were a number of daisies. "Are you the press?" he enquired. "I am" I replied. "Are you here to cover this?" he asked. "What's this?" I responded.
He explained that he was about to strew flowers at the front door in order to keep folklore traditions alive. I wished him good luck and went on my way.
Further research has identified the flower strewer as Mearns Pollock from Newry. He says May day celebrations were a regular tradition in Ulster in the not too distant past, when people put May flowers on their front doors to pacify the fairy Kingdom. Now the fairies have been pacified, Mr Pollock hopes power sharing will blossom.
Testing testing
- 1 May 07, 02:23 PM
So far it's Labour on 6 seats, Con 1, LD 1 Green 0 Plaid Cymru 2 ...
Comments coming in. There've been claims of electoral irregularities in Oldham ... that's handy to know ... Theresa May says the Conservatives are halfway up a mountain and Peter Hain has been telling Sky News that the results so far are "uncomfortable for Labour" ...
Oh .. Torfaen result coming in. Except the graphics are showing Llanelli on the plasma screen. And the preview screen isn't working.
Just as well there's time to rehearse Election night and live it all twice.
And seeing as how I'm going to try and blog throughout the night (apologies now to Huw Edwards if I ignore him at any crucial moments) I might as well give it a go.
Just been told to concentrate. Any tips on juggling?
Honest Ken
- 1 May 07, 11:37 AM
What's Labour fighting for at this election?
A majority.
Or if you're Kenneth Skates, top of the Labour list in North Wales (or the north of the principality as the New Statesman have it in their story ) the forecast is more like "a fall to 27 (down 2) whereas the Tories will gain a handful".
We know this because that's what he wrote in his posting on the New Statesman's Election blog.
Labour officials weren't happy. Their lead candidate in North Wales asked if his comment could be removed. Instead they made it headline news.
If he's right - Labour lose a couple of seats to the Tories or anyone else in North Wales then we should be seeing Kenneth Skates AM in Cardiff Bay. And if it turns out he's that good at predicting results and making waves, he'll be very welcome.
Two more thoughts: BNP. UKIP. I met more than a few of their voters in Aberdare yesterday. A few weren't sure who they voting for - that national party, the B something, or Dai Llewellyn's lot. The same kind of news comes from North Wales. If the cross goes in the right box, could there be enough support - somewhere around 12,000 based on past figures - to grab a list seat this time?
And perspective. A producer's Dad said she was doing great work, before asking her "When do we get the real news back?"
Vote Labour Get Plaid?
- 1 May 07, 11:25 AM
Gareth Thomas, a contributor to this blog and former Labour MP for Clwyd West is expected to endorse Dafydd Wigley as a candidate on the regional list in north Wales this afternoon.
He's not endorsing Plaid but must know his days a Labour Party member are about to come to an abrupt end.
Come on Gareth, tell us more!
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This is ±«Óãtv News's election 2007 blog. The political editors from across the UK will report here throughout the Assembly and Parliament elections.
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