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Revolutions and social media

Hamid Ismailov Hamid Ismailov | 13:47 UK time, Friday, 4 February 2011


Revolutions begin with idealistically wonderful slogans such as "Liberté, égalité and fraternité".

But then the revolutionaries end up replicating the systems which they fought against.

The French revolution, which swept away the Bourbonnes dynasty was replaced with the Napoleon dynasty.

The Russian socialist revolution got rid of Tsarism but gave birth to the dictatorship of Stalin - a man who was much more dictatorial than the Tsar Nicolay the Second.

The Cuban Revolution which sought to overthrow the Batista (remember how romantic the young and bearded Che and Fidel appeared to be) ultimately brought a life of poverty, a lack of liberties to many who have withstood the lengthy regime of Castro a man who has beaten all records for staying in power.

These might have been historic facts, but in my lifetime I have seen and reported on popular revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan.

Each uprising has followed the same pattern.

It doesn't mean that I'm for or against the revolutions.

Karl Marx famously said that "revolutions are locomotives of the history".

But Marx also alluded to the fact that history tends to repeat itself in farcical forms.

Watching and reading what is happening now in the Arabic world - Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan, I can't help wondering what will be the shape of these countries in 10 to 15 years' time?

Will another autocrat rise to power behind the popular wave?

Will political Islam, which is so vocal and strong on the street level, become the reigning state ideology across the region, changing the whole dynamics of the Middle East?

Or will there be another, third way, which hasn't been experienced in the region yet?

But there's an element which was missing from previous pre-internet revolutions - the ever increasing role of social media - and its ability to gather people en masse and co-ordinate their acts.

Its role was unequivocally shown in the post-election uprising in Iran and similar patterns of on the street protest are noticeable in the ongoing uprisings in the Arab world.

Now you can protest and watch the same demonstration on your smart-phone.

You can appeal to your allies, to the outside world, you can easily duplicate your effort, your impetus, your momentum.

But what about the revolution's aftermath?

Could the same tools change the tendency to go from revolution to autocracy so resolutely?

Could the social media and internet serve as vox populi in maintaining real liberté, égalité and fraternité, when people are back at home having protested on the street?

This is the question I would like to ask you. What do you think? Can social media keep revolution truly revolutionary - and change the status quo for the better?

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