Not so simple
More flesh on the bones of the boffins' analysis. With 100 of the ±«Óãtv's key wards declared the estimate of the change in vote share is:
Labour down 3%
Conservatives up 6%
Lib Dems down 4%
Now, you can't simply add these figures to the vote share in 2004 and get tomorrow's Projected National Share. Why? Because the figures above are the change in share in those wards and not a projection of what the final figure will be.
Proof that individual results will tell stories that don't fit neatly into the PNS figure comes from Worcester which the Tories have failed to take. This is one of the seats David Cameron needs to win an election.
NB. If you're just joining me, you might be interested in this brief guide to what I'm looking out for tonight.
I'm 
Comment number 1.
At 2nd May 2008, dah1002 wrote:I’m not impressed by the surveys Jeremy Vine's presenting right now. The surveys he's comparing are from different pollsters. That alone could count for much of the difference in the figures.
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Comment number 2.
At 2nd May 2008, bluejuppy wrote:Interesting on TV to point out that Nuneaton and Bedworth has been Labour for 30 years... the same was the case in Harlow. This hasn't been said yet, but interestingly also has not been blue for over 30 years... it is going to be a bad night for labour...
Labour only down 3%.... hmm...
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Comment number 3.
At 2nd May 2008, nebubub wrote:Derby Results:
Chellaston Ward: Con Gain from Lab
Abbey Ward: Lib Dem Gain from Lab
Blagreves Ward: Lib Dem hold
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Comment number 4.
At 2nd May 2008, U11769947 wrote:can a politicians who doesn't gain more than one third of the votes,really speak with any endorsment?has the time come to appoint (say a mayor) when the candidate does not receive a one third mandate????
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Comment number 5.
At 2nd May 2008, mothpower wrote:Worcester probably a local issue. It has deeply unpopular fortnightly bin collection; as last year when they won the council byelection, Labour has cynically implied they would revert to weekly ... also influence of BNP in this inner-city ward
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Comment number 6.
At 2nd May 2008, mike4tatton wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 7.
At 2nd May 2008, RatchettPatchettII wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 8.
At 2nd May 2008, U11769947 wrote:has the realism of a green agenda become an expense to far?
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Comment number 9.
At 2nd May 2008, rossmiller19 wrote:Not so Simple? It's very simple tonight/this year! If you are comparing it to last year's Local Council elections in Scotland. We can see the results clearly, blue, red, yellow councils, holds, losses and gains for parties, it's all so clear, STV (and the AMS fiasco in Scotland 2007) took the excitment out of the elections last year, and 27 of 32 councils are now hung! Come on we want to see a contest in politics, surely that gets us out to vote more than boring 'consensual politics'.
Praise for the FPtP system. Elections are far more exciting this way. Forms of PR encourage voter apathy in this sense. If FPtP outright was used for the Mayoral election we would not be having to wait for the result, and your night would be more exciting.
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