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I find it difficult to predict what Iraq will be like in 13 weeks time let alone 13 years. I suspect that the two religious factions will still be waring with each other and that not much else will change, I see no end to it.

I feel that Iraq in 2020 will dramatically change for the better. this is because change can happen so quickly. for example 2020 will be in 13 years, 7 years ago Iraq was dictated by Saddam Hussein and now he is dead and there is wide-spread violence throughout Iraq with a ridiculous amount of bloodshed and deaths everyday. therefore, with the necessary people, as an Iraqi i believe that change can occur for the good. without these people we will see civil war that will create an extreme change in history.

everyone needs some stability and services such as water,electricity and security.Given America could not supply such in New Orleans why pray do we feel they will accomplish such a basic aim in Iraq

everyone needs some stability and services such as water,electricity and security.Given America could not supply such in New Orleans why pray do we feel they will accomplish such a basic aim in Iraq

Look at Vietnam. Once the invading army's have left they will no doubt sort out their problems.
It seems obvious that while the invaders are there, and predominately American, the present conflict will go on, in fact it will escalate.
Americans are not known for winning hearts and minds.
Their philosophy has always been the macho (John Wayne) stance; grip them by the balls,,,,,,,,,,,their minds will follow, who cares about their hearts

I think it's highly unlikely that things will improve from a Western point of view. I also don't think democracy will survive except perhaps in the Kurdish north.

Given that the coalition forces are supporting an Iraqi government challenged from 2 sides, fearful Sunni's and radical Shia's, I don't see that we are likely to maintain that government without massive longterm military committment. There is no political will in the UK or US for that.

The US will stay until after the Presidential elections and then whoever the new President is, she or he will pull out quickly. British forces may go even more quickly as Brown attempts to pull his new Government's opinion poll ratings up before a General Election.

Full scale civil war will erupt once coalition forces leave and Iran will back the radical Shia's and a puppet government will be installed in Baghdad.

A Nothern Ireland in the making - a country artificially rent by politicians with the inflammatory mix of religious bigotry.

Iraq will never be much better or worse than it is at this time Messers Blair & Bush will be long remembered for this disaster, IE: Mention Suez and Eden comes to mind, mention Eden and Suez is mentioned automatically, partition the country and Ireland and India will be repeated. Oh Blair & Bush what a dangerous and awful world you areleaving behind as you both go off into your sunsets.

What happened to the UN with regards Iraq?

That's what I'd like to know.

Afghanistan now. Or, worse, Afghanistan in the future.

While I am optimistic that a settlement will be reached which may result in a stable situation existing in 2020, I do not recognise the 'federal' situation as being likely to be maintained. There are two reasons why I disagree with the scenario being postulated. The first is that the Kurdish Region has, whatever the constitutional fiction, emerged as a stable self-governing nation in which virtually none of the violence that permeates the Arabic-speaking provinces occurs. Kurdistan has quietly but firmly been consolidating itself in recent years, and the vast majority of the population has clearly determined that, after a respectable period (during which the Kurdish regional government will oversee the gradual re-occupation of Kirkuk province and other Kurdish-populated areas - the eastern part of Ninawa province, up to the left bank of the Tigris, and the northern parts of Diyala province), it will firmly assert the de facto independence which a fractured Iraqi 'central' government will be impotent to resist. The second factor which your 'federal' scenario overlooks is that within Arabic-speaking Iraq, the Shi'a already constitutes almost 80 percent of the population and, shorn of the Kurdish-speaking Sunnis, will have little cause to deal with the Sunni Arabs except as a relatively small minority. Baghdad is already well on iys way to becoming a Sh'ia city, in spite of the maintenance of substantial Sunni neighbourhoods. We will now have increasingly to consider Baghdad as part of the "Shi'a South" rather than a city region of mixed religious control. Obviously, without Baghdad, the remaining Sunni areas cannot constitute a viable state in its own right, so will remain part of an Iraq under firm and hopefully stable Shi'a-run government. The Saddam legacy is such that minority status will be hard for the Sunni Arabs to accept; this will result for many years in a central government too busy with its own 'fractured' state to be able to challenge the Kurdish secession. Clearly this will bring difficulties for the Kurds, too, in particular because of Turkish hostility; nevertheless, if the Kurdish government can make it clear that it has no claims on Turkish territory (a quite plausible position, given the considerable linguistic differences between the Kurds in Iraq and those in Turkey - a factor often overlooked by postulants of a state encompassing all Kurdish areas), the acceptance of the Turks can be negotiated. This is, I think, a realistic assessment, and one I think has has to be a hopeful outcome, which will at least bring peace to the region.

for the improve iraq not taking long time every side but if the local peopal give the hand present new goverment and every single peopal understand what need the coming our genaration for education and other morden world coming new century.
yes , in iraq democracy must be better in future.
coalition force when leave,this thing , depand on iraq pepole, if iraq peace and stable to move country advance it will be soon coalition force leave iraq.

Future of Iraq is dependant on how committed the west is in the region.There will be democrasy in the neighbouring countries if Iraq manages to sustain a democratic system of government.

As an Iranian Kurdish activist from Kurdistan democratic Party of Iran(KDPI) I am confident our fellow Kurds in Iraq will do everything possible to protect democrasy and federalism in Iraq, we expect to benefit from this policy in Iran.

I wish the Iraqi's, every success and good fortune.

With regards to our boys(British troops) I do hope they can stay for as long as it is needed, but I would like to see the troops back safe and sound to their families when is feasable to do so.

Parwez Zabihi
For and on Behalf of
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran
London

Regrettably, the first and most depressing scenario is I fear the most likely. As an alliance between southern iraq and kurdistan is most unlikey i have nothing but bad forebodings about iraq. I hope to God I'm wrong.

As someone who was born in British India, I have known Britain as a classical colonial power. Indeed, this is the 250th year of the Battle of Palassey (and the 300th year of the Act of Union!!!), which transformed Bengal, the textile workshop of the world to the supplier of cotton for the Lancashire mills! What economic, social and political changes have taken place in Britain so as to transform this age-old imperialist country into one of a custodian of democracy?!

In 2020, there will probably be three Iraqs: history repeating itself once again, as it did in Ireland, India and Cyprus.

The British BC would be better employed trying to get a handle on What Britain will be like in 2020.

Then you will read some shockers.

I believe that Iraq will become three separate states based on religious and ethnic majorities, this notwithstanding the relative influences of third parties. A major issue will however be the division of the country's natural resources which will not be so 'easily' segregated.

Although 2020 is 13 years away I hope that by then Iraq will be a successful democracy with all sides working together to achieve this. They have a great chance I think of a great future if they take the chance they have of forming a long term successful government. The coalition forces must stay as long as they are wanted by the Iraqi government, their leaving timetable must be agreed by the Iraqi government and nobody else. Both America and the United Kingdom must respect the decision of the leaving timetable set out by the Iraqis. There must be no interference with this process. I hope that Iraq will become a successful democracy as the Iraqi people wish it to be and will be able to work with the rest of the world on important issues. Iraq must move forward, but must never forget all of their own people and those of the coalition forces who have been killed in conflict so that they can benefit from democratic government and way of life. All the opportunities are there for them to grasp which I hope they will.

Iraq by 2020 ....planned in advance not wasted by war...

A practical social corporatist customer representation society...founded on the Iraq of today

Every man and woman a shareholder of a national executive company dedicated to the job of accountable provision for all and practical understanding for the purpose of work not vendetta...

Political Democracy eliminated down to a facetious occasional moment level...

Banking and credit for everyone and commercial stores and provisions for all..

A memorial to saddam for his proud courage and moral raising support even in the moment of his death sentence for a nation violently intruded waiting to heal again

A restoration of public spiritedness and all enemies evicted...

Belief in the useful eugenics of every contributor and the stories of the world ...

Not one god of social justice but an understanding of the gen-i-us of nature...

International language schools for visitors to discover iraq and trade with her...

A world wide reputation for Beautiful gardens architecture and fashion parades..

Every mosque and ayatollah has by law to form a company for limited productive work..all potents are limited into companies...

Oil exports controlled over a 300 year forecast

Ghettoisation, races and families separated into patrolled towns...but a common passport...

A common book of prayer and understanding...

A case by case approach to law where any case can be heard and natural conviction is supported by common law as a common sense

Nuclear power ..electricity for all

Pure water and good tea...

A practical health care system prioritised in advance in a scheduled broadcast way...

A portfolio approach to opportunity development in schools

Biological relief of terrorist streets to enabled quicker further forethought cheerfulness and agreed dissipatory release of fundamentalist angers...controls of biological discrimination measures...

BCD TLC

It is quite evident now that Iraq will be George Bush and Tony Blair's junkyard for spare military parts and an experiment into the destruction resultant of modern munitions.

It will not be able to be rebuilt. Many buildings destroyed were a thousand years old, and some two thousand.

This is so apocolyptically distressing that it causes me to literally vomit when I think of it too much!

I think both of those films are ridiculous! An Al Quaeda nation state? The kurdistan winter olympics? Rubbish. A prolonged civil war in Iraq, eventually ended in a Shia Islamic Republic much like Iran. Something the Americans never wanted, but due to complete incompetance in foreign policy and military action that's what they would have created. A third Golf War perhaps?

I'm watching your report on Iraq 2020 and it's just so unrealistic! Both points of view are shocking subjective/unrealistic/ and unanimously ridiculed.

Sorry, but for God's sake Newsnight - not only are you the baston of world current affairs, but you're also publicly funded - will you please get a grip!

Just watched the program. Wondering how a serious survey about Iraqi thinking can take place in the present circumstances. Not of course, and the ±«Óãtv again made a mockery of what serious journalism should be. In the end it was again Americans and British discussing the future of Iraq in 2020. Sure there were two Iraqi's present, however paid directly or indirectly by the US. And then as sole person not yet kneeling before the US/UK, there was the Syrian ambassador. Sounded like in the good old colonial days when Gordon Pasha and Cecil Rhodes discussed what to do with Africa.

This is supposed to be a news programme; why are you mixing fact with fiction? Baudrillard would be turning over in his grave!

Interesting debate tonight.

Any chance The Lancet [1] could get hold of the Iraq survey methods used by this cross media effort, esp since both of their previous efforts discredited [2]

Ref the future, Kurdistan is a working model (esp of how things could have been) if things don't improve, pragtatism means Iraq will be split three ways.

Just wondering how many of the anti-west, anti-american, anti-collation & anti-capitalist cabals CANNOT wish for success in Iraq (on any level) given its so against their mantra & will take the wind out of their sails.

Meantime, ref media survey, good set of stats & poll making pics & mini documentary [3]

Interesting set of results, including this one

- "Slightly more than half — 51% — now say that violence against U.S. forces is acceptable — up from 17% who felt that way in early 2004. More than nine in 10 Sunni Arabs in Iraq now feel this way.

- "About four in five Iraqis oppose the presence of U.S. troops but only a third want those U.S. troops to leave Iraq immediately.

So 66% don't want the US to leave, but meantime 51% think its OK to open fire :(

vikingar

SOURCES:

[1]
[2]
[3]

One weak programm occasionally from the newsnight team is to be expected from time to time,as this one was .
I would have liked to have seen a
newsnight special ,in the way we were duped into this illigal bogus neocon- agenda war.
But to be fair,the concept of wondering where

Me @30
i pressed the post button by mistake ,ooops.
But to end in brief,
the guest were a bad mix..

Well, we can't assume according to these circuminstances, because each year there are different events going on, Since some say that history is the key to the future we can say that Iraq would be free by that time, some others say this would not happen unless US leaves Iraq.

i thaught your programme on iraq 2020 is very good. But couldnt help but notice that you somehow link the hijab (headscarf) with being modern or civilised. i think that wrong and appallling coming from the ±«Óãtv.
Freedom does not concern the hijab, iraq is not iran;

I deplore the absence of a Turkmen Representative among your guests on tonight's programme.

While you invited a Kurdish representative who spoke in the name of the Kurds and included the Arabs, the Turkmens and the Assyrians of the north of Iraq in her so-called "Kurdistan".

The Turkmens, Assyrians and Arabs are Iraqis who live in the north of Iraq, therefore, who gave your Kurdish guest the right to include them in her so-called "Kurdistan"?

The Kurds of Iraq represent a minority, not only in Iraq as a whole, but even in the north of Iraq. Therefore allowing your Kurdish guest to speak in the names of the Arabs, the Turkmens and the Assyrians is most unfair and biased.

The U.S. and U.K.'s "new classification" of the Iraqi people, as Kurds, Shia and Sunni is a pure fabrication to serve their economic and geopolitical interests. The Iraqi people are ethnically composed of Arabs, Kurds, Turkmens and Chaldeo-Assyrians and confessionally of Muslims (Shias and Sunnis) and Christians.

I hope that in future when you make a programme about Iraq you will make sure to include a representative of the Iraqi Turkmens among your Iraqi guests.

Everyone's missed the *most* important point to emerge from the programme:

In 2015, whatever happens in Iraq, good or bad, Carrie Gracie will still be on our screens and looking fabulous. So, the world will still be a great place in which to live!

(Not so happy about all the junk around the screen, though!)

The politics in question here is that of the petrodollar.

OPEC was going to change the oil currency to euros [which it still wants to]. This would have created a financial crash of 25-40% in the usa [and uk]. By taking hold of the 2nd largest oil reserves [iraq] and returning them to dollars [saddam had moved to euros] the west can slow down the pace of change to the petroleuro and so have a softish landing.

most of the oil producers are or have moved to the euro. Venezuela, Iran, etc. Seeing the writing on the wall most national banks are 'diversifying' into euros and decreasing dollar reserves [even china].

the iraq war was forcast on the currency exchanges a while before it actually happened. So it is not a side issue but pivitol to understanding what is going on. All global politics is reflected in the currency market that can make and break countries and can forcast where international tensions are going to occur.

rather than big rizla speculation shows i prefer the hypothetical format we used to get in the 70's and 80's as a device for exploring how things happen?

The imagined future VTs were well dodgy. A mix of the bathetic and the ridiculous, i don't think they did justice to the debate. They were like some kind of sixth form project, conceived as a cross department workshop by a school's media studies and drama teachers with the aim of bringing current affairs to life for the kids. And the use of imagined news sites such as "newstube.com", etc. was just terrible - what's wrong with bbc.co.uk - won't that be around in 2020, then?

Firstly, as a curmudgeon I must say that the two futurologist-docudramas should have no place on a great news programme like Newsnight. We get enough of this rubbish on the ±«Óãtv without it's flagship news vehicle having to dumb down.

On the future of Iraq, I feel there are two distinct geographical areas which will have different futures. This was reflected in the discussion last night, in that the Kurds were very optimistic and the rest were much less so.

The broadly Kurdish area of the north has enjoyed a certain autonomy for years now and has been allowed to progress. I don't believe this progression will be turned back and if it were to be threatened from the south of Iraq, Kurdish areas would be bolstered by western powers for some years to come. This is the likely location of US military bases long into the future too.

The rest of Iraq is more open to flux. The majority Shia who hold power at the moment are waiting for the US to leave. The main Shia groups: Dawa, SCIRI & al-Sadr's backers will all come to support the kind of system we see in Iran today. Of course to impose a system where the clerics are at the head wouldn't be acceptable to the Sunni. I certainly see a civil war to settle the issue. The outcome of this depends on events in the larger region and much depends on the future of Iran.

Too many imponderables at play to be certain of anything, but the lid has certainly been taken off Pandora's Box.

newsnight should have presented us with a look at the manner in which this war was was sold to the public,and the primary reason for the execution of invading iraq, and not what will be in 2020.guessing at what the future holds in iraq is a side issue.dicky @ 36 gave one of the main reasons for war, withs saddams iraq switching from petrodollers to the euro.
The USA neocon led administration has designed an agenda that was sold to an unsophisticated and unquestioning public including the UK .The USA needs to satisfy its oil consumption and has created reasons,bogus that they are ,in having a greater influence in the oil rich world,and some fat corporate shills line their pockets with the spoils of war.
newsnight does not need to get its cystal ball out ,as more burning questions need to be aired on your programme.Take Bush and Blair to task in the lies that they sold to us, and these lies are glaring for any one who wishes to do the research.Alex Jones(texas radio talk show host) is not the only voice who Questions the USA Bush administration,many do as well ,but newsnight needs to get up to speed on this.

It's a bad button day...pressed my piece & it's gone incomplete...so if anyone see's it in cyberspace pls send it home.

Thought the discussion was a serious mistake.. these things in a(Small) studio environment ,chaired by a standing Jeremy do not hit the spot. Especially when you have Ann Clwyd propping up the invasion & saying how lovely it all is.. has she ever been around Baghdad outside the Green Zone?(& she was elbowed off the Iraq committee!)
The person I homed in on was the American Democrat who believed it was all about PRIVATISING THEIR OIL... whether he was playing politics don't know, but have heard similar well held opinions before, interesting..
The main intended topic never got off the ground..crystal ball gazeing is for the Gipsies!or as the Yanks say ..."for the birds"..

AMERICA SHALL BE THE ONLY NATION TO BLAME ON THE ISSUE OF IRAQ COLLAPSY.WHY DO THEY INVADE THE COUNTRY AND CRUSFY SADDAM BEFORE ARRANGING THE BETTER WAY OF SAVING LIVES IN IRAQ?
MAY USA TAKE RESPONSIBILITY ON THE COLLAPSY ON IRAQ NATION FOLLWING THE DAWNFALL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN.
if Saddam was The Murder, the Dictator, what Mr. George Bush will be called, if this Particular nation is going be swept by the gunfire?

a place of peace to the poeple,having to forget the past to be positive and to enjoy the time on earth.for the ones that still remain living,who nows what bush ,mr power might decide.it is also the eduication that the children recieve tody that is imporatant.why power a country that is weak in power of milatry.

Good morning, ladies and Gentlemen, Il just say a few words and then Il take a few questions:

Prime Minister:

Iraq 2020, a radioactive wasteland, it was the last resort, to retain at least a tiny hope, that a blosseming democracy could take root, sometime in the future.

Despite our best efforts, we could not find a partner for peace. This left us with no other option, but to drop two thermo-nuclear devices on Bagdad and Basra, after the "fall of Bagdad" to, what can only be described as an "Iranian fifth column".
We did not take the decision litely, we consulted friends and allies, but in the end we were forced to act. Sadly, we will never truely know how many innocent people died, some say 4 million, sadly, we will just never know.

Any Questions:

Prime Minister! Dont you think WE should now carry on and finish our mission once and for all and send a strong message to the Iranian Regime, that meddling in the internal affairs of another soverign state will not be tolerated?

A:
All options are on the table.
Q:
When are We going to have to say "Enough is Enough, Prime Minister????
A:
We should not see what has happened in Iraq as the end but rather as a new beginning, We must redouble our efforts to bring peace and stability to this region, and We must all remember, we wouldnt be here this morning if it wasnt for the Iranian invasion and occupation of iraq back in 2003. We all know the Iranian regime is to blame for all of this. Were the good guys in all of this.

Well just leave that press conference at this stage.

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Personally, I am seriously worrying about future of Kurdistan. None of the nation has been forced to be that much bloody by their leaders to establish a government and state in the history of the world. Nations were about be forced for independence war and had fought against imperialist, feudalist, or colonialist armies, but none of them had been forced to kill hundred thousands of innocent civilians for their liberty in the name of to provide their independence by the feudalist and imperialist forces, as much as I know.

Unfortunately I cannot be optimist about future of Kurdistan because democracy cannot be built by building a "National Senate Building" or "National Representatives Building". Establishment of democracy requires free minds, free consciousness, free personalities, free individuals, free thoughts, economically and financially free people, people free from tribal leaders, people free from the land, people free from the feudalism, people free from imperialism, people free from popular media, people free from weapon traders, people free from drug dealers, people free from hate, people who are free to own a land to be able to work on their 'own' land, more importantly democracy requires intellectuals free from colonialist governments’ influence, etc.

Other than these, first of all Kurdistan has to be ready for payback of those innocent civilians' lost lives and their loved ones' sorrow.

As I mentioned at the beginning of my post, I hate for saying this but I am unable to be optimistic about Kurdistan's future.